Research & Commentary Results

The Royal Institute for Strategic Studies (IRES), charged by the Government of Morocco with analyzing and monitoring the country’s external relations, turned its attention to the U.S.-Morocco relationship at a conference conducted at its Rabat headquarters on Oct. 29. Taking note of the long history of the bilateral relationship — Morocco was one of the first countries in the world to recognize the new American republic in 1777 — panelists reviewed the current state of political, economic, and cultural engagement between the two nations.

The Nov. 1 seizure by Malta of two 2000-cubic-foot containers full of Libyan currency printed by the Russian state printer, Goznak, that was intended for delivery to Libya’s non-internationally recognized eastern government, highlights the continuing importance of the economic aspects of Libya’s ongoing civil war.

With the fall of the Berlin Wall 30 years ago, ties between Western and Eastern Europe were renewed. In the same period, another wall crumbled — between the Middle East and the former Soviet states. And yet, to this day, U.S. national security institutions continue to view these two regions through a Cold War lens, separating how they are handled. This approach needs to change; integrating research and policy toward the Middle East and the bordering states of the former Soviet Union would improve analytical understanding and help identify new policy options.

On Oct. 29, Prime Minister Saad Hariri submitted his resignation and that of the government, a move that has been hailed as an important victory for the protestors who have taken to the streets across the country for nearly three weeks now. Heralded as al-thawra, or revolution in Arabic, Lebanon is witnessing the rise of an inclusive, decentralized, and grassroots movement that transcends geography, sect, and traditional loyalties to political dynasties and parties.

Iranian mediation might bring the two big political blocs to an agreement on a new government, but the protest movement demands only new, clean faces and won’t readily accept another cabinet drawn from discredited political blocs.

Now is a time to stand with the people of Lebanon, and to maintain support for the country’s constitutional institutions.

Today, on the streets of Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, and other countries, we hear the demands of the youth, asking for justice, governance, dignity, and jobs. In contrast to these demands, we see governments unwilling or unable to move towards systems of governance that would ensure transparency, accountability, and fair competition for all. Corruption can only be vanquished if transparency, a rigorous justice system, and credible redress mechanisms are put in place. The World Bank can and must re-engage on that path.

Only one leader has the moral standing and mass appeal to be able to move Iraq out of the deadly stalemate in which it now finds itself and which may degenerate into more violence and chaos if the status quo is not upended: Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

It remains to be seen how resilient the protest movement is and how long it can remain mobilized for, especially if political leaders refuse to change their stance.

The FII’s public relations bash is important in that it shows the world that the leadership of the kingdom has an ambitious and real vision to move the country forward.

While there is probably zero chance Prime Minister Khan will step down, efforts will persist in trying to delegitimize those in power because this is what Pakistan’s opposition parties seem best programmed to do.

As protestors take to the streets across the country, Lebanon appears to be heading towards an economic meltdown with severe consequences for Lebanese citizens of all walks of life. We are concerned that failure to tackle current problems immediately and comprehensively could result in spiraling unemployment, uncontrollable inflation, more social unrest, civil strife and a severe deterioration in public health services and other basic resources.

Lebanon’s current uprising, larger than the Cedar Revolution and rooted in long-held socio-economic grievances, has united protestors across the country in calls for fundamental political change. And this time, Shiites have joined the struggle. This is not a good outcome for Hezbollah — nothing threatens it more than discord within the Shi’a community — and it now finds itself in uncharted territory.

If the crowds continue to take to the streets, Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s resignation seems inevitable, but what comes next is a big question mark.

For all of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s reputational gains abroad, it is Pakistan’s economy that will determine his political future.