Rafah operation won’t help Israel escape its political doom loop
As the ongoing attempts to revive a ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas are showing minimal signs of success, Israel is moving forward with its plan for an operation in Rafah, the most southern city in Gaza that borders Egypt. On May 6, the Israeli military issued an evacuation order for more than 200,000 Gazans in the southern-west part of the Gaza Strip.
China, the US, and the battle for Middle Eastern technology
The US is changing its approach to dealing with China’s technology statecraft in the Middle East. The recent Microsoft-G42 deal offers a new model for technology competition that helps to secure American technologies while accommodating its partners’ aspirations.
Human shields or shielding Israel from accountability?
Israeli leaders insist that the extreme destruction in the Gaza Strip is unavoidable given Hamas’ use of “human shields” and the fact that the militant group has embedded itself among the civilian population and routinely operates from civilian structures like hospitals and schools. But far from explaining the current devastation, the questionable “human shields” charge has become a way to shield Israel from legitimate scrutiny and accountability.
The US and China in the Middle East: Three scenarios for 2050
The Middle East and North Africa is likely to be one of many venues in what might be a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing. Barın Kayaoğlu and Steven Kenney explore factors shaping the role of MENA countries in US-China competition in the region and map out potential future scenarios.
Saudi-Houthi Agreement: Four Scenarios and Their Potential Impact
Less than 10 years after seizing power in Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthi militia continues to evolve — and so do the threats emanating from it. After several years of negotiations, it now seems likely that the Houthis and Saudis will reach a peace agreement, and it is worth considering how such a deal could change the group’s trajectory. This report examines a number of possible futures that could develop in Yemen over the next 1-2 years based on shifting capabilities, interests, and alliances.
Journalism out, hasbara in: How Israeli TV news joined the Gaza war effort
For the last few months, people around the world have been closely following the ongoing brutality of the war in Gaza. Pictures of Palestinians fleeing south and looking for relatives under the rubble, videos of children searching for food and water — these and more have been circulating on social media and news networks every day since October 7.
In recent years, the settler movement discovered a winning strategy: Attack the Israeli military
As the war in Gaza approaches its seventh month, the settler movement has been raging its own separate war against none other than the Israeli military itself. While Israeli society is still healing from the devastation of Oct. 7 and tens of thousands of Israelis are displaced from their homes near the Gaza Strip and the northern border, the settlers have launched campaigns against the Head of the Central Command, advocated for resettling Gaza, and escalated tensions with the Israeli military.
Six months since the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel and subsequent outbreak of war in Gaza, the deadly and devastating conflict looks no closer to concluding. Is it still possible to achieve a sustainable cessation of hostilities and restart the conflict-resolution process? To get there, what are the incentives and disincentives that could be constructed for the two main combatants, Israel and Hamas?
Strategic foresight is helping create Arab futures
On March 5-7, 2024, the United Nations’ Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) hosted the annual Arab Forum for Sustainable Development (AFSD). The inclusion of a special session on “Collaborative Futures: Strategic Foresight for Sustainable Development in a World of Crisis” is another example of the growing attention to foresight-driven analysis and decision-making among leaders in the Arab world.
