Research & Commentary Results

With the Islamic State collapsing in Iraq and losing ground in Syria, Iran and its regional proxies see the United States as the primary threat to their influence and ambitions and have stepped up efforts to oust the U.S. military from the region. Through diplomatic outreach – and at times veiled threats – Iranian leaders have been urging the Afghan and Iraqi governments to expel American forces from their countries. Tehran has also deepened its ties with the Taliban and has reportedly teamed up with Moscow to undermine U.S.-led stabilization efforts in war-torn Afghanistan.

The Durand Line issue has continued to complicate the unpredictable nature of the Afghan-Pakistani relationship since the birth of Pakistan. Constant tension haunts their neighborly relations, as apprehensions and suspicions co-exist with some affable gestures. No Afghan government, including the present one headed by President Ashraf Ghani, has ever recognized the legitimacy of the Durand Line, which runs through mountainous terrain and remains largely unpoliced.

Israel and Hezbollah have recently raised the profile of their long quiescent front across the Blue Line border. Warnings have increased that a conflict will soon engulf Lebanon, and perhaps even draw in the United States. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened to attack Israel’s nuclear reactor at Dimona and Israeli chemical installations in Haifa.

Read the full article on The New Yorker. 

It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words, presumably for what it depicts, but what is the value of what a picture doesn’t show? To some, it is nothing; for others, it is everything.

Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Randa Slim, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Israel’s expected announcement of new settlement expansion, the escalating risk of a clash between U.S.-backed and pro-Iranian forces in southeastern Syria, and Lebanon’s efforts to pass a reformed election law.

Reacting to today’s deadly bombing in Kabul, Iranian leaders and media outlets blamed U.S. policies and military presence in Afghanistan for growing extremism and instability in the war-ravaged country. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said the Kabul attack shows “Takfiri terrorism recognizes no boundaries” and called on regional countries to act in unison to fight terrorism instead of seeking help from outsiders – an apparent reference to the United States, which has more than 8,000 troops in Afghanistan training and assisting the country’s security forces.

Afghan officials

The election of Emmanuel Macron is certainly bad news for terrorist organizations in the Middle East. At the same time, it is unlikely that France will modify its attitude in regards to larger regional challenges, for instance, the ongoing Syrian civil war, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or the cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Alex Vatanka, Jonathan M. Winer, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Trump’s trip to Israel and the prospects for a peace process, the reelection of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Russia’s planned naval drill off the coast of Libya this week, and the Afghan Taliban’s decision to reject peace talks.

Accusations are mounting that Iran is ramping up its engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Like a lot of Iran’s murky foreign policy, it is difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. The three questions that need to be answered to clear up the murky relationship between Iran and the Taliban are: why the change in Iran’s policy; when did this policy change occur; and what is the level of support afforded to the Taliban?

Unlikeliest of Allies

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, Eran Etzion, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the resumption of Syria talks in Geneva, President Trump’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia and Israel, and the latest developments in the home stretch of Iran’s presidential election.

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani’s latest remark on the country’s missile program has aroused the ire of the military establishment. In the second presidential debate aired on Iran’s state-run TV, Rouhani, who is seeking a second term in May 19 elections, accused the powerful Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) of trying to sabotage the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the nuclear deal Iran signed with world powers in July 2015. “What did they do in order to undermine the J.C.P.O.A.?” Rouhani asked, referring to the I.R.G.C.

An editorial in Afghanistan’s largest daily Hasht-e Sobh accuses the Iranian government of “playing a double game” in Afghanistan. The article analyzes Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s weekend visit to Kabul and warns that such diplomatic outreach would yield no results unless the Iranian government cuts ties with terrorist groups fighting in Afghanistan. “Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s trip to Kabul was an opportunity for high-ranking officials of the national unity government to share Afghanistan’s legitimate concerns with him,” the paper stressed.