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The sky is sliding: Why and how the Lebanese avoided catastrophe and aggravated challenges over time
A Lebanese protester gestures at riot police guarding a road leading to parliament in central Beirut on January 19, 2020 amid ongoing anti-government demonstrations. (Photo by PATRICK BAZ / AFP) (Photo by PATRICK BAZ/AFP via Getty Images)
  • Analysis
  • The sky is sliding: Why and how the Lebanese avoided catastrophe and aggravated challenges over time

    Lebanon’s in trouble and the Lebanese may soon face the real reckoning that they’ve thus far avoided. Having bought time they’ve increasingly needed with money they’ve increasingly lacked, but somehow conjured, they’re running out of both. Its leaders must act, soon, to avoid a complete catastrophe. And, whether avoiding or coping with collapse, the Lebanese must well and truly consider how to shape a better future.

    January 21, 2020

    US policy in Afghanistan: Smoke and mirrors, but not yet hopeless
    A US Army serviceman sits at the tailgate of an helicopter carrying US Defence Secretary, after leaving the Resolute Support headquarters, in the Afghan capital Kabul on April 24, 2017.
  • Analysis
  • US policy in Afghanistan: Smoke and mirrors, but not yet hopeless

    18 years after CIA and U.S. special operations elements touched down in Afghanistan to pursue al-Qaeda and topple the Taliban, ongoing, incremental troop reductions reveal the smoke and mirrors manner in which the U.S. is withdrawing from the conflict in lieu of a negotiated settlement.

    January 16, 2020

    Turkey’s westward energy shift
    President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin (not seen) attend the opening ceremony of TurkStream natural gas pipeline project, at Halic Congress Center in Istanbul, Turkey on January 08, 2020.
  • Analysis
  • Turkey’s westward energy shift

    On Jan. 8, Turkey inaugurated the TurkStream natural gas pipeline from Russia, seemingly deepening Ankara’s ties with Moscow. However, a fuller analysis of Turkey’s current energy policies and consumption trends indicate a dramatic shift westward, away from Russia and Iran.

    January 15, 2020

    The Humanitarian Disaster During the Battle for Baghouz
    Civilians evacuated from the Islamic State (IS) group's embattled holdout of Baghouz wait for bread and water at a screening area held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in the eastern Syrian province of Deir Ezzor, on March 5, 2019. - More than 7,000 people, mostly women and children, have fled the shrinking pocket over the past two days, as US-backed forces press ahead with an offensive to crush holdout jihadists. (Photo by Bulent KILIC / AFP) (Photo credit should read BULENT KILIC/AFP via
  • Analysis
  • The Humanitarian Disaster During the Battle for Baghouz

    It is unclear how many civilians were killed in February and March 2019, when the U.S.-led coalition and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) pounded ISIS’s last enclave around the town of Baghouz. Presumably, the numbers reached into the thousands. Those who escaped found themselves in the desert, hundreds of kilometers away from lifesaving aid. The reasons for the failure of the humanitarian response were mainly political.

    January 14, 2020

    The killing of Qassem Soleimani: Was there a better way?
     A file photo dated September 18, 2016 shows Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani during Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's meeting with Revolutionary Guards, in Tehran, Iran.
  • Analysis
  • The killing of Qassem Soleimani: Was there a better way?

    In the early hours of Jan. 3, 2020, a U.S. Military MQ-9 drone fired multiple air-to-ground missiles and killed the commander of the elite Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – Quds Force, Major General Qassem Soleimani. The targeted killing of Soleimani was carried out as he left the Baghdad International Airport under overt military authorities. Given that the strike was carried out under this authority, it was publicized globally shortly after it was completed. There were other options available to target Soleimani, however.

    Iran’s lit fuse does not necessarily favor the US
    A woman attending a candlelight vigil, in memory of the victims of Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737, talks to a policeman following the gathering in front of the Amirkabir University in the Iranian capital Tehran on January 11, 2020.
  • Analysis
  • Iran’s lit fuse does not necessarily favor the US

    In the aftermath of the latest round of U.S. and Iranian brinksmanship, hawks and liberals are interpreting developments as validating their positions. Hawks are claiming victory for “maximum pressure,” arguing how the U.S. strike against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani frightened the now weakened ruling clerics into submission. Liberals argue that Iran took the high road, demonstrating a willingness to respond to incentives and negotiate.

    January 13, 2020

    Cease-fires in Idlib and Libya as Turkey looks to buy time
    Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) attend the opening ceremony of the TurkStream on January 08, 2020 in Istanbul, Turkey.
  • Commentary
  • Cease-fires in Idlib and Libya as Turkey looks to buy time

    It is increasingly the case that the Russian-Turkish decisions on Idlib or Syria need to be understood as part of a broader Russian-Turkish partnership.

    January 13, 2020

    China’s growing role in the Middle East
    China's President Xi Jinping (R) welcomes Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi at the Second Belt and Road Forum.
  • Analysis
  • China’s growing role in the Middle East

    While the world is engaged in an ongoing discussion about the ramifications of the trade war between Washington, DC and Beijing, the economies of the Middle East are shifting away from their longstanding ties with the U.S. toward economically powerful China. This may have long-term implications for economic and political dynamics in the region.

    January 9, 2020

    Georgia: European aspirations, Middle Eastern realities
    Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and Georgia's Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia (L) hold a joint press conference at the Presidential Complex in Ankara on October 31, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • Georgia: European aspirations, Middle Eastern realities

    Since regaining its independence nearly three decades ago, European aspirations have been a central part of Georgia’s political agenda and identity. But the reality is more complicated and Georgia is, in a meaningful sense, part of both greater Europe and the greater Middle East.

    January 7, 2020

    The Military-Security Dimension of Israel-Southeast Asia Relations
  • Analysis
  • The Military-Security Dimension of Israel-Southeast Asia Relations

    Over the past two decades, Israel has developed robust bilateral relationships with China, India, and Singapore. Israel has also succeeded in forging ties with Japan and South Korea. More recently, Israel has devoted considerable attention to strengthening its relations with Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand and Myanmar. Military-security cooperation in the form of arms trade as well as technology transfer and licensed production has emerged as an important dimension of Israel’s relations with Southeast Asian countries.

    January 7, 2020