Research & Commentary Results

Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani has served for 10 years as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Iran’s top policymaking body in both domestic and foreign policy matters. A number of recent developments have aroused speculation that he could soon vacate his seat. Such a change would be an important signpost of how the Iranian establishment is posturing itself against the backdrop of continued revolutionary sentiment among significant segments of the population.

Art Dubai is so much more than an art fair. In this, its most ambitious iteration and 16th year, it promises to be both a cultural emporium and a litmus test for the global economy.

Turkey has suffered severely from the two major earthquakes on Feb. 6, 2023. The death toll is a record high, exceeding 45,000. Physical damage from the earthquakes will cost at least $20 billion. GDP growth will be 2.0-2.5% less than forecast before the disaster, adding nearly $20 billion. The combined economic losses due to damaged assets and slower growth expectations may end up being much higher than $40 billion when the government releases a detailed and reliable disaster loss report covering human resources.

It was described as a “significant breakthrough” by a Jordanian official, while Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said the agreement would ‘’de-escalate violence” if implemented, but just as the details of the one-day security meeting in Aqaba, on Feb. 26, were being announced, it became apparent once more that a rare attempt to bring Israeli and Palestinian officials together, in a bid to contain a spike in violence that was quickly getting out of control, was ill-fated.

The Gulf Arab states, while major oil and gas producers, can play a significant role in supporting global efforts to achieve net-zero goals. They are not only endowed with great potential for renewable energy resources as well as some of the world’s lowest carbon content fuels, but also with, to varying extents, sizable financial resources. Yet, to unlock such huge potential, the Gulf Arab states will need to systematically identify and address the various challenges in their path to net zero.

As fighting rages on in Ukraine, crucial submarine communication cables in the Black Sea could be in danger of disruption. Not only have risks of accidents grown with the increase in regional naval activity, but deliberate attacks on these cables follow the Kremlin’s modus operandi of targeting critical infrastructure below the threshold of war. Black Sea states need to more resolutely protect submarine cables, either within the format of NATO or novel regional frameworks.

The Middle East is proving to be a test-bed for military innovation that could be incredibly helpful for other priority regions such as the Indo-Pacific, write Jasmin Alsaied and Bilal Saab of the Middle East Institute.

Although Germany and Israel maintain a close partnership, the German “Zeitenwende” has not yet been perceived there. Dr. Nimrod Goren outlines a German-Israeli partnership oriented towards democracy and peace.

Western pundits often admire autocrats for getting things done. Turkey shows why they’re wrong.

It is advantageous for the United States to maintain its military aid to Egypt without implementing slight reductions that may not influence Egypt’s policies on homeland security or defense against foreign threats.

Last week, the Biden administration released its new Conventional Arms Transfer (CAT) policy. The new CAT policy emphasizes human rights and strategic competition with China. In the latest installment of the Defense Rapid Reaction series, experts from MEI’s Defense & Security Program provide their views on what the new CAT policy means and how the historical tension between human rights and national security might play out in U.S. policy toward the Middle East.

For more than a decade, policymakers in developing countries in MENA have been confronted with high inequality, low growth, rising poverty, and high youth and female unemployment. They now face new challenges as well. This note briefly identifies some of the most important issues affecting the region, relates them to the results of a recent survey of 12 Arab countries carried out by Arab Barometer, and suggests some pathways out of the current quagmire.

Atmospheric rivers play an important role in the movement of water through the atmosphere and can release that water at magnitudes capable of producing extreme weather and flooding. But what are atmospheric rivers exactly? And how do they behave in relation to current climate change in the MENA region? MEI’s Mohammed Mahmoud and Raha Hakimdavar are joined by Dr. Amin Dezfuli to discuss these questions and more.

يستمر النظام الحكومي الحالي في تونس، وفقاً لجميع المؤشرات، في الابتعاد أكثر فأكثر عن الشكل الديمقراطي الليبرالي الذي تصوره دستور عام 2014. ويصدق هذا بشكل خاص في الفترة التي أعقبت 25 يوليو/تموز 2021، بعد أن علق الرئيس قيس سعيد عمل البرلمان وتولى كامل السلطات التنفيذية والتشريعية. ومع ذلك، فإن التحليلات التي تركز فقط على سعيد تغفل بعض الاتجاهات الاجتماعية والسياسية الأوسع نطاقًا التي كانت ترفض بالفعل الطريقة التي سارت بها "الانتقال الديمقراطي" في تونس بعد عام 2011. كما أنها تغفل العلاقة التي تضافرت للحفاظ على النظام الحالي، ولا سيما بين قوات الأمن وبعض وسائل الإعلام المتملقة والشخصيات البارزة في قطاعات السياسة والأعمال والخدمة المدنية.

The traditional 20th-century pillars of U.S.-Saudi bilateral relations are energy and security — a reflection of Cold War dynamics and the critical role that Saudi Arabia plays in the global economy as an energy superpower. Now, in 2023, Riyadh and Washington should think beyond energy to explore opportunities and address critical challenges in areas such as tech and cyber, which could ultimately cement their strategic relations for the 21st century.