Research & Commentary Results

On May 20, President Donald Trump landed in Riyadh for the first stop of his nine-day Middle East and European tour. Many hoped that the president’s long-awaited trip would clarify his administration’s approach to the Middle East. As expected, the most important developments involved a $110 billion arms deal, anti-Iranian rhetoric and plans to establish an “Arab NATO.”

The election of Emmanuel Macron is certainly bad news for terrorist organizations in the Middle East. At the same time, it is unlikely that France will modify its attitude in regards to larger regional challenges, for instance, the ongoing Syrian civil war, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or the cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Alex Vatanka, Jonathan M. Winer, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Trump’s trip to Israel and the prospects for a peace process, the reelection of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Russia’s planned naval drill off the coast of Libya this week, and the Afghan Taliban’s decision to reject peace talks.

Since the government of Narendra Modi took office in 2014, India and the U.A.E. have moved relatively quickly to consolidate their existing ties and to explore new areas of cooperation. During this time, they have elevated the relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, with the expressed intention of extending their cooperation to the security and defense spheres. This essay discusses these recent developments, with particular attention to the role of Pakistan as a constraining factor in India-U.A.E. relations going forward.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, Eran Etzion, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the resumption of Syria talks in Geneva, President Trump’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia and Israel, and the latest developments in the home stretch of Iran’s presidential election.

This essay discusses India’s increasingly extensive relations with the Gulf Arab countries and its equally important interest in continuing to develop mutually beneficial ties with Iran. The author argues that as India’s regional profile rises and its economic prowess expands, New Delhi will come under pressure to take sides — pressure to which Indian leaders must try their utmost not to succumb.

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani’s latest remark on the country’s missile program has aroused the ire of the military establishment. In the second presidential debate aired on Iran’s state-run TV, Rouhani, who is seeking a second term in May 19 elections, accused the powerful Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) of trying to sabotage the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the nuclear deal Iran signed with world powers in July 2015. “What did they do in order to undermine the J.C.P.O.A.?” Rouhani asked, referring to the I.R.G.C.

Read the full op-ed on Defense One.

If President Trump travels to Riyadh later this month, as reported, he will find that the six leaders of the Gulf Coordination Council (GCC) countries hold widely divergent views on Iran, the extent of the Iranian threat, and how to resolve the conflict in Yemen.

The latest air strikes on an airport near Damascus purportedly by Israel and increased U.S. military activities on Jordan’s northern border have triggered a concern in Tehran about the possibility of a broader U.S.-led military campaign in Syria.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Eran Etzion, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Pope’s upcoming visit to Egypt, Ahmadinejad’s public feud with Ayatollah Khamenei, Israeli efforts to draw Russian support away from Iran, and the appointment of Prince Khalid bin Salman as Saudi Ambassador to the U.S.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Gerald Feierstein, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the victory of Turkish President Erdogan’s “Yes” constitutional referendum campaign to increase his powers, Secretary of Defense Mattis’ trip to the Middle East, the entry of 1,600 candidates for the upcoming Iranian presidential elections, and the alarming violence in Pakistan against accused “blasphemers”.

Economic and trade relations have been the most dynamic and significant component of the fundamental changes that have taken place in India’s relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) countries since the early 1990s. As a consequence, the Gulf has become of vital strategic importance for India in terms of energy security, trade, investment, and remittances. This essay discusses the contours of India’s trade relations with the G.C.C. countries, including the contributions they have made to India’s economic ascent and the scope for their further development.

India has become Israel’s largest arms export market in the world over the last decade (replacing China); and Israel has become one of India’s largest arms supplier. Why did India develop a strong military partnership with a country it had ignored for 42 years? What can explain the development of defense ties in spite of limited political leadership involvement over the past decade? Finally, what are the prospects for defense relations as India grows to become one of the world’s largest defense importer? This essay answers these questions by providing an account of the evolution of Indo-Israeli defense cooperation over the past 25 years.

Summary