Research & Commentary Results

This Commentary was first published as an op-ed in the Washington Post on August 22, 2011

A relatively successful transition from the Gaddafi regime to a united, stable, more open and democratic Libya would be seen in the region, and more widely, as a credit to the NATO-led intervention. It would enable Libya to resume its oil and gas exports, demonstrate international community capacity to manage such transitions and encourage positive outcomes to other Arab Spring protests.

The Middle East Institute is honored to host Syria experts Radwan Ziadeh, Ausama Monajed, Amb. Theodore Kattouf, and Andrew Tabler for a panel discussion about the domestic and regional implications of the ongoing political unrest and violence in Syria. With protests continuing to rock Syria for the sixth month, the Assad government recently introduced a law allowing the formation of independent parties. But protesters say it's too little too late and point to the government's ongoing crackdown.

This Commentary was first published on Foreign Policy's Middle East Channel on August 4, 2011

Originally posted August 2011

In January 2011, Syrian President Bashar al-Asad granted an interview to The Wall Street Journal in which he claimed that, because he was so close to the beliefs and aspirations of his people, Syria was “immune” to the revolutionary fever of nearby Arab lands.

Syria has the same preconditions for revolution as Tunisia and Egypt: poverty, unemployment, corruption, and repression. What Syrians were looking for was the spark.

The recent uprisings in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen share associated economic grievances and a common call for responsive government and a more dignified way of life; however, their underlying social dynamics are the product of diverse encounters with the outside world and years of oppression under very different political regimes. This is particularly true in the Libyan case, where socioeconomic and political structures and institutions shaped before as well as during the Qadhafi years have combined to produce a unique political economy.

*This Commentary first appeared on neimanwatchdog.org on July 8, 2011

While political debate still roils over the legality of the American role in Libya, other questions have grown more pressing. Those questions include whether the European side of the NATO operation can be sustained and whether the Libyan opposition truly has the ability to achieve their goal of taking down the regime of Muammar Qaddhafi & Co.

These issues are critical for those favoring US participation in NATO operations as well as those opposed.

The Middle East Institute and the UNDP are proud to host a discussion with UNDP Administrator Helen Clark, Under Secretary for Economic, Energy and Agricultural Affairs Robert D. Hormats, and Middle East Institute Scholar Amb. Edward Walker about how best to address political, economic and human development needs in the Arab world today.

The Maghreb extends about 2,000 kilometers on either side of the Greenwich meridian (-13° West from Cabo Jubi and 11.08° East to Kelibia) and is located on the same longitude as Europe. Although the Maghreb forms a single climatologic and geographical unit, it is a diverse landscape of mountains, fertile areas, and steppes. Nevertheless, the similarity of climate, geography, and culture in the Maghreb provides a solid foundation for developing a common environmental strategy.

Elaboration of a Sustainable Development Strategy

The Middle East Institute is proud to host Syria experts Ammar Abdulhamid, Helena Cobban, and Steven Heydemann for a discussion about the ongoing protests in Syria and the international and regional reactions to the shifting Syrian landscape. As the uprising continues into its third month, how sustainable is the protest movement? Are the Syrian government's tactics in crushing dissent succeeding? What impact has the violence had on the Assad regime's relationship with its neighbors like Turkey and close allies like Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas?

The Middle East Institute is proud to host Ambassador Ali Suleiman, Paul Pillar, and Jeffrey White for a discussion about the current situation in Libya and ways to address the stalemate between Libya's rebels and the forces of Colonel Qaddhafi. As the conflict drags into its third month, Aujali, Pillar and White will examine the humanitarian situation on the ground, NATO's recent operational innovations, and the role of the US and Europe in aiding Libya's rebels.

Developments in Syria have been growing more disturbing. The Assad regime seems to be reacting to the unrest as if it believes it can contain it with much the same approach used against the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood roughly 30 years ago, particularly during 1980-1982. Some have credited Tehran with coaching Damascus on how to contain its current popular challenge.

American policy toward conflict in Libya is bearing disappointing fruit. The conflict there seems to be settling in to a stalemate with the likely prospect of becoming an extended civil war. In the face of this prospect, John McCain and other Senators are calling for greater US involvement. That goes against the grain of American public opinion. It raises in sharp relief the question: Will our current limited engagement policy work? And if so, when?

It was absolutely predictable that Republicans would attack President Obama whatever he did in Libya, though Newt Gingrich, in his overeagerness, overreached by criticizing him for too explicitly opposite reasons. It was also likely that the anti-interventionist left, which sees (almost?) any use of American military power as imperialistic and unwarranted would likewise be opposed.

Rahm Emanuel famously quipped that a crisis should never go to waste. In his absence, the Administration seems determined not to take sufficient advantage of the ongoing and huge crisis in the Arab world. Its hesitant, uncertain, and (to date) completely ineffectual response to events in Libya sadly make this all too clear.