Read the full article at War on the Rocks.
Despite the absence of a public and formal account of what transpired during the meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Helsinki on Jul. 16, it seems that there is at least tacit agreement that effectively endorses the Syrian regime’s takeover of southern Syria and limits Iranian presence in Syrian areas near the Jordanian and Israeli borders.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Ahmad Majidyar, Gerald Feierstein, and Charles Lister provide analysis on the first batch of U.S. sanctions on Iran, leaked emails that may undermine the Trump administration’s Mideast peace plan, and the assassination of a Syrian military scientist.
Will US sanctions bring Iran back to the negotiating table?
Read the full article on Haaretz.
In the span of one week, President Donald Trump both warned Iran’s leaders of a calamitous response to any belligerence from Tehran and offered Tehran a “real” nuclear deal if they come back to the negotiation table. It is just the latest example of the Trump administration’s disjointed Iran policy.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts provide analysis on Fatah-Hamas reconciliation talks in Cairo, possible cooperation between the Syrian Democratic Council and the Assad regime, the protests in Iraq, the U.S.’s lifting of restrictions on aid to Egypt, and Imran Khan’s victory in the Pakistani elections.
A step forward for Palestinian reconciliation?
Nathan Stock, MEI Scholar
Saudi Arabia temporarily halted all oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandab strait on Wednesday, Jul. 25, after two of its very large crude carriers were attacked by Houthi rebels. According to Saudi and Yemeni officials, the attack was launched from the besieged port city of Hodeida.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts provide analysis on Secretary Pompeo’s speech on Iran, Erdogan’s decision to lift Turkey’s state of emergency, the cease-fire in Gaza, Iran’s continued threat in Syria, Trump’s tweets on Iran, and Vice President Dostum’s return to Afghanistan.
Trump’s Iran gamble
Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow @AlexVatanka
Tension between Iran and neighboring Afghanistan over water rights has reached new heights as declining rainfall, prolonged droughts, and mismanagement of water resources have severely affected agricultural production, food security and availability of drinking water in both countries. Tehran has warned of retaliatory actions if Kabul does not allow sufficient water into Iran’s water-stressed southeastern region, while Afghan officials accuse Iran’s Revolutionary Guards of aiding Taliban militants to sabotage dam projects in southern and western Afghanistan.
Iran and Pakistan have agreed to boost defense ties, enhance cooperation on border security and regional issues, and jointly manufacture military hardware, Iranian and Pakistan media reported. The agreements came during a high-level visit to Pakistan this week by an Iranian military delegation led by Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Mohammad Hossein Bagheri.
The eruption of conflict between the Syrian regime and the armed opposition exacerbated the political and sectarian divisions within the Lebanese government, causing it to sever relations with Damascus and dissociate itself from the war. Nevertheless, the Lebanese government eventually was forced to coordinate with the Assad regime in order to manage the refugee crisis and other spillover effects of the conflict. Beirut’s dealings with Damascus reflect the overarching aim of mitigating the impact of the war on the relations between the Lebanese Sunni and Shiite communities.
Last week, rebel forces in southwestern Syria agreed to a Russia-brokered deal to surrender Deraa province and lay down their arms, possibly securing strategic victory for the Assad regime in the long-running Syrian conflict. MEI’s Robert Ford and Charles Lister join guest host Gerald Feierstein to discuss the significance of these developments and whether the United States is preparing to withdraw from Syria in a broader agreement with Russia.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Bilal Y. Saab provide analysis on Iran’s efforts to stay in Syria, Pompeo’s upcoming trip to Abu Dhabi, the Pakistan Muslim League’s struggle in the upcoming National Assembly elections, and Qatar’s decision to renege on its Russian S-400 purchase.
Will Iran leave Syria?
Robert S. Ford, Senior Fellow
