The Other MoU: Launching a Europe-Gulf Resilience Initiative After the US-Iran Deal
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran may have ended one of the most consequential Middle Eastern crises in decades, but it has not resolved the strategic problem it exposed. Whether the 60-day talks it set in motion will produce a final agreement remains far from certain.Yet the central lessons are already clear: Iran has preserved significant leverage, Washington has had to scale back its ambitions, and Europe and the Gulf face the prospect of protracted regional tension. Europe and the Gulf should therefore use the aftermath of the US-Iran deal to articulate their own “other MoU”: a Europe-Gulf Resilience initiative.
A Post-War Model for Verifying Iran’s Missile Arsenal
This study proposes a model for constraining and verifying Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal by employing a layered Strategic Verification Model with seven components: comprehensive baseline declarations; missile test and launch monitoring; intrusive inspections; quantitative and qualitative limits on missile capabilities; production controls, especially on solid-fuel manufacturing; a robust enforcement and compliance architecture; and regional confidence building measures.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
This backgrounder provides an overview of how the Abraham Accords came about, the US interests involved, their economic and strategic consequences, and the prospects for further enlargement going forward.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
As the Western Sahara conflict reaches its fifth decade, the territorial dispute remains unresolved and largely unknown. MEI’s Intissar Fakir unpacks the Western Sahara’s complex history and the rival claims by Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. She examines recent developments, such as President Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory and the collapse of a 30-year cease-fire, as well as the core questions that remain unanswered after half a century.
Podcasts
Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
G.C.C. Conflict Could Further Complicate U.S.-Turkey Relations | MEI Flash
A fierce spat between Qatar and leading Arab nations could add another complication to the already strained relationship between the United States and Turkey. Ankara wants to calm the tension, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has spoken by phone with the leaders of Qatar, Russia, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia to reduce tensions. He has also expedited legislation to deploy troops to Qatar as part of a military agreement signed in 2014. President Donald Trump, however, supports, and even takes credit for, the Saudi move to isolate its smaller neighbor.
June 1, 2017 – Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, joins host Gonul Tol for a discussion of the tensions in Turkey’s relations with Europe in the wake of the Turkish referendum and a recent meeting between President Erdogan and E.U. leaders.
Two cells of terrorists have rocked the United Kingdom, striking in the heart of its two greatest cities. As Americans look on in horror, with sympathy for our British allies, we wonder what lessons we should be taking so that we might avoid such events here. I see six relevant points.
Algeria today possesses a number of assets that endow it with the potential to be a regional power and to serve as an anchor of stability. After Algerian security forces succeeded in crushing the decade-long Islamist insurgency and in the context of rising regional instability, American and European officials came to regard Algeria as being a potentially valuable security partner in the Maghreb and the Sahel. However, as this essay shows, Algeria’s military doctrine must be updated for this partnership to truly flourish — and for Algeria itself to thrive.
Is the traditional view that U.S. leadership in the Middle East advances our strategic interests well judged? As president, Barack Obama upended many assumptions about that view. He turned heads in dismissing Saudi Arabia as a “so-called ally” and reached out to Iran, hoping to make it less dangerous.
U.S.-led Coalition Strikes Pro-Assad Forces near al-Tanf Again
The U.S.-led coalition announced today that it “destroyed additional pro-Syrian regime forces that advanced inside the well-established de-confliction zone in southern Syria.” The U.S.
Senior Iranian Official: Syria Crisis Helped Tehran and Moscow to Build “Strategic Ties” but Doubts Remain
A senior Iranian official has said that cooperation between Iran and Russia in Syria elevated relations between the two countries to a strategic level and changed the balance of power in Syria in favor of the government of Bashar al-Assad and its foreign allies.
Barzani Complains to U.S. about Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces in Sinjar
Iraqi Kurdish Region President Masud Barzani has warned that the Hashd al-Shaabi – the paramilitary Iraqi forces also known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) – is complicating the security and political situation in Mosul and broader Nineveh Province.
Israel to Announce Settlement Expansion | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Randa Slim, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Israel’s expected announcement of new settlement expansion, the escalating risk of a clash between U.S.-backed and pro-Iranian forces in southeastern Syria, and Lebanon’s efforts to pass a reformed election law.
Iranian Officials and Media Outlets React to Gulf Crisis by Blaming U.S. and Saudi Arabia
Iranian leaders and media outlets today reacted to a decision by Saudi Arabia and several other Arab nations to sever diplomatic and commercial ties with Qatar by blaming Washington and Riyadh for regional tension and discord. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Iranian Parliament’s Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, said the rising tension is a direct result of President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East.
Iran-Supported Iraqi Paramilitaries Capture al-Baaj Region near Iraqi-Syrian Border
The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) – also known as the Hashd al-Shaabi – on Sunday seized the center of al-Baaj, one of the last bastions of the Islamic State in northwestern Iraq close to the Syrian border, the Iraqi and Iranian media reported. Iraqi air force assisted the P.M.F.
Iran Set to Deploy 47th Flotilla of Warships to Indian Ocean
A senior Iranian military official has said that the country’s 47th flotilla of warships will be deployed to the Indian Ocean this month to protect the country’s cargo ships and oil tankers, according to Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards (I.R.G.C.), “The 46th flotilla, which was dispatched to the high seas some time ago, is now halfway through its mission and will return home in the coming days,” Rear Admiral Peyman Jafari Tehrani, the deputy commander of the Iranian Navy, said.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
