The notion that Turkey may supplant Iran’s role as Israel’s primary regional rival is highly questionable. Turkey is undeniably a formidable military power and NATO member. But its conventional force cannot replicate the offensive role of Iran’s Shiite regional alliance network. As such, Turkey simply does not possess the type or depth of influence Iran wields in the Levant; it lacks Iran’s soft power among Shiite communities, Tehran’s penetration of political and security elites, and the proxy networks that give the Islamic Republic real leverage. In Lebanon, the gap is even wider. Turkey does matter and has influence among marginalized Sunni communities in the north, but when it comes to Iran’s embedded power within Lebanese institutions and elites, Turkey is no match.
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