Deal or no deal? That has been the central question looming in the standoff between Iran and America since a fragile ceasefire was announced on 8 April before being extended indefinitely by US President Donald Trump weeks later. There has been a flurry of diplomacy, leaks, and mixed messages about the US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan and, most recently, Qatar.
Barbara Leaf, a former top State Department official for the Middle East, described the confusing back-and-forth of this past weekend as a “cacophony of discord”. It is difficult to know if this diplomacy might produce results or whether this is just a temporary pause before another round of war, but the mounting economic damage in both Iran and around the world is incentivising the participants, as are threats of further damage to regional infrastructure such as energy production sites and desalination plants. These high costs help explain why the belligerents have not slipped back into war.
معهد الشرق الأوسط (MEI) هو منظمة تعليمية مستقلة وغير حزبية وغير ربحية. لا يشارك المعهد في أي أنشطة دعوية، وآراء الباحثين فيه تعبر عن آرائهم الشخصية. يرحب المعهد بالتبرعات المالية، لكنه يحتفظ بالسيطرة التحريرية الكاملة على أعماله، ولا تعكس منشوراته سوى آراء المؤلفين. للاطلاع على قائمة المتبرعين للمعهد، يرجى النقر هنا.
