Latest on the Iran War

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Paul Salem, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Russia’s recent escalation of military force in Syria, deteriorating Saudi-Iranian relations, and an escalation in the Kashmir between India and Pakistan.

Russia’s Sharp Escalation in Syria
Robert S. Ford, Senior Fellow

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Robert S. Ford, Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, and David Mack provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Obama’s upcoming final speech to the UN General Assembly, the Syrian collapsed ceasefire, the buildup to an eventual Mosul offensive, Rouhani’s trip to Latin America, and Libya’s oil exports.

Introduction

The relationship between Iran and Russia has been characterized more by competition than by cooperation in modern political history. Military incidents during the Soviet era created an atmosphere of distrust, but Russia has become an increasingly prominent economic and political partner of Iran as both countries have been targeted by Western sanctions regimes. More recently, upheaval in global energy markets and the deteriorating security situation in Syria have led to the forging of stronger commercial and political bonds between the two countries.

In times of repression, informal networks are useful to keep activism alive as they offer a way to activists for organizing. This short piece examines the background of informal activism in Iran and its possible implications.

In this issues of MEI’s weekly briefing, contributors Daniel Serwer, Randa Slim, Eran Etzion, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including discussions between the United States, Russia and Turkey on Syria policy at the G20 Summit, the Syrian opposition’s transition plans, Russian moves on Israel-Palestine, and Iran’s energy policy.

This collection of essays, inspired by Sean Yom’s piece “Arab Civil Society: Weaker but Deeper,” seeks to “peer into hidden spaces of resistance not captured by the formal sector” and is thus intended to complement the MAP series on 

Turkey’s intervention in the Syrian conflict signals a new milestone in the five-year-old Syrian crisis, with its insertion as a new direct player certain to further complicate the dynamics of this already complicated conflict. Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield in northern Syria wasn’t a surprise with respect to the concept—the Turks have been advocating a safe zone for several years—but it was so in terms of timing, just six weeks after the failed coup attempt.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Daniel Serwer, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Turkish intervention in Syria, and next month’s OPEC meeting in Algeria.

Turkey-Y.P.G. Fighting a Worry for Washington
Gonul Tol, Director of the Center for Turkish Studies

Turkish President Erdogan is about to make a high-profile visit to Tehran. The trip is not just about a potential warming of relations between Ankara and Tehran but some think it might become a turning point and herald a new regional alignment on how to end the Syrian civil war.

Continuing low oil prices have prompted Persian Gulf states to diversify their heavily petro-dependent economies. This issue is forcing the oil-rich states to invest and expand their potential as international trade hubs as a pathway away from the time bomb of single commodity exports. As many Gulf states have outlined in economic plans, as well as developed on the ground, maritime trade is an increasingly essential link connecting the Middle East to the global economy.

Iran is Reclaiming Oil Market Share

Iranian oil sales have nearly doubled since sanctions were lifted on its oil exports in January 2016. In fact, Iran is recovering market share faster than many experts had expected. 

Several factors have contributed to this development, including that Iran has—

Summary

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Alex Vatanka, Charles Schmitz, and Robert S. Ford provide analysis on current issues including Turkey’s regional diplomacy as President Erdogan is set to visit Tehran, the Iranian perspective on Turkey’s role in the region, Secretary Kerry’s visit to Saudi Arabia amid renewed fighting in Yemen, and ongoing attempts to broker a cease-fire deal in Syria.

Read the full aritcle on The National Interest.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Zubair Iqbal, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on issues including India’s Middle East policy as its foreign minister is set to visit Iraq and Syria, the opening of relations between Iran and Turkey following the latter’s recent failed coup, and the latest signs of tension within Afghanistan’s shaky unity government.