Attiya Ahmad

“طهران أعطت إشارات مشجعة حول بدء محادثات غير رسمية مع الولايات المتحدة بشأن برنامجها النووي يوم الجمعة”.

In the November 8, 2020 national elections in Myanmar, voters returned 1991 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) to power. Three months later, just as the new legislature was set to begin its work, the Tatmadaw staged another coup d’état, arresting President Win Myint, State Counsellor and de facto government leader Suu Kyi, and many more NLD politicians. This article discusses the key reasons why the NLD was so successful at the polls and then explains the coup and its timing.

Today, there are five conflicts that share similar features in the Black Sea. That is, they are protracted, separatist Russia-supported frozen and active conflicts in the former Soviet space. Deeply rooted in the history of Soviet territorial reorganization and ethnic mixing, conflicts in Transnistria (Moldova), Crimea and Donbas (Ukraine), and Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Georgia) are the result of violations to state borders that were integrated into the Soviet system.

Writing in 1993, Lillian Craig Harris observed that “for China, economic power, not armed conflict, had become the most important factor in the struggle to gain independence, power, and status.” Fast-forwarding more than a quarter-century, this statement is now more true than ever, especially in the MENA region, where economic ties between MENA and China have grown stronger by the year.

On Feb. 4, President Joe Biden announced the end of U.S. support for the Saudi Arabia-led coalition’s offensive military operations in Yemen. This decision fuelled optimism about a U.S. return to negotiations over the JCPOA with Iran. Instead of engaging with the United States, Iran has supported the Houthi-orchestrated Marib offensive and stepped up its diplomatic efforts in Yemen.

“منذ وقت تدمير تماثيل بوذا، أثبتت طالبان عدم مبالاتها بالضغوط الدولية عند تحديد أهدافها”.

In his book Obama’s Wars, Bob Woodward describes a meeting about Afghanistan in the White House. He writes how Gen. David Petraeus said, “I understand the [Afghan] government is a criminal syndicate,” to which then-Vice President Joe Biden asked, “If the [Afghan] government is a criminal syndicate, a year from now, how will troops make a difference?” Mr. Biden’s question remains unanswered.
Biden, of course, is now the president. I wonder if he remembers his unanswered question from all those years ago. Despite the many years of tragic, seemingly endless war in Afghanistan, Mr. Biden’s question remains relevant today. I’ll take a shot at answering it: No number of troops could make a difference. The root of the problem is Washington’s willingness to partner with thieves and warlords.

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For many decades, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been bitter rivals, but not over women. If there was a competition, it was only over whose government could impose more limitations on their female population.

On March 4, OPEC+ members agreed to maintain their current production cut levels into April, and the Saudi- and Russia-led cartel’s decision further strengthened the upward trajectory of oil prices. While there were differing opinions among the OPEC+ members regarding the state of the global economy, the group’s unanimous decision reflects Riyadh’s current take on the markets, which is that the health of the world’s economy remains fragile as the recovery from the pandemic continues.

يستعرض إبراهيم الأصيل رأي لرُبى حصري حول اجتماع “أوبك بلاس” واختلاف الرؤى بين روسيا والمملكة العربية السعودية.

يستضيف إبراهيم الأصيل في هذه الحلقة مدير برنامج في معهد الشرق الأوسط كريس أبي نصايف للحديث عن إطلاق برنامج لبنان ومناقشة آخر التطورات في لبنان والدور الدولي المحتمل. — Ibrahim Al-Assil Chris Abi Nassif

With debate on Yemen in recent weeks focused on the decision by the U.S. State Department to revoke the Houthis’ designation as an FTO, the Joint Declaration (JD) proposal by U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths has received relatively little attention. Since the global outbreak of COVID-19 a year ago, the U.N. special envoy has sought to use the urgency engendered by the pandemic to broker a nationwide cease-fire alongside a set of confidence-building measures — branded as the JD — between the Houthi rebels and the Republic of Yemen Government. But the content of the proposal is not new, nor is it a recipe for effective de-escalation and sustainable conflict resolution.

Annika Cole / March 4, 2021

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Relations between the U.S. and Black Sea countries are complex. The Western-oriented Georgia and Romania have shown unconditional support for greater U.S. involvement. Others, like Turkey and Russia, will continue to challenge Western involvement. And while relations between Black Sea countries reflect similarly complex cooperation and conflict patterns, common among them is a hope that the Biden Administration will bring a shift in U.S. policy in the region.

Frontier Europe Initiative’s new report, Alternative Futures for the Black Sea Region, is designed to inform the development of a U.S. strategy for the Black Sea region by considering a range of alternative future scenarios.