Attiya Ahmad

After the publication in 2017 of my book Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes, co-authored with RP Eddy, I have been often asked what my predictions are for possible trouble ahead. The point of the book was that there are recognized, data-driven experts who see things accurately before other experts, not that I am capable of seeing disasters coming.

The leader of a prominent Iranian-backed unit within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) said today that his group will hand over its heavy and medium weapons to the Iraqi security forces, Iran’s Fars News Agency reported. Qais al-Khazali, the head of the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, called on the Iraqi government to value P.M.F. forces as an asset and treat them fairly. The A.A.H.

A senior Iranian cleric today called for arming Palestinians to wage a “third intifada” against Israel, Fars News Agency reported. The interim Friday prayer of Tehran told worshippers that the fight against ISIS in Iraq and Syria has further solidified Iran’s influence in the region and stressed that the creation of Iranian-led “resistance” forces in the region will lead to the destruction of Israel. “The enemies created Daesh [ISIS] so as to create a security shield for Israel.

Emboldened by its recent gains in Syria and Iraq, Iranian military leaders are seeking to play a more aggressive role in other regional conflicts in order to “expand” Iranian influence and export the “Islamic Revolution.” In particular, latest statements by commanders of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and commentaries in the Iranian media suggest that the I.R.G.C. is planning to further increase its support for its Houthi allies in Yemen.

After nearly seven years of war, the military balance of power in Syria appears to have shifted in favor of President Bashar al-Assad and his allies, Russia and Iran. Since Russia’s military intervention in September 2015, Assad has managed to either retain or recapture most major population centers in the country encompassing so-called ‘Useful Syria’—including Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo and Latakia. It most recently broke the ISIS siege on Deir Ezzor, paving the way for further gains in the city and its surrounding areas, leading to the Iraqi border town of Al-Bukamal.

Iran’s leaders reiterate that the Islamic Republic will not negotiate over its controversial missile program despite mounting international pressure. Abbas Araghchi, deputy foreign minister of Iran, said the country will continue to test new ballistic missiles as planned. “Iran’s missiles exist with full force. And when needed, missile tests will be carried out. And if necessary, Iran will launch missile attacks as it did against Daesh [ISIS in Syria],” he added.  

The chairman of Iran’s Assembly of Experts has said that President Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital will mark the demise of Israel, according to the Iranian media.

As the battle against ISIS is winding down in Iraq and Syria, some military leaders and hardliners in Iran call for not only keeping a long-term military presence in both countries but also expand the country’s “military advisory missions” to other conflict zones in the region, including Yemen and Palestine, warns reformist Iranian daily Bahar.

The head of Khatam al-Anbia Construction Base, the main engineering and construction arm of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), has said that the conglomerate is ready to play a leading role in Syria’s reconstruction process, Tasnim News Agency reported.

The big news in recent days has been President Trump’s very contentious decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. It was a decision roundly condemned by allies in Europe and the Middle East and marks a major shift in U.S. policy. MEI experts Eran Etzion, Yousef Munayyer, and Nathan Stock join host Paul Salem to discuss the fallout.

Read the full analysis on the National Interest.

International markets for natural gas — fragmented regionally and with differing price-setting mechanisms — are undergoing profound changes. The foundation is being laid for the emergence of a more globally integrated gas market, and the rapid expansion of the seaborne liquified natural gas (LNG) trade, which has forged links between distant markets, is a major reason why. Qatar — an LNG powerhouse — has dominated the Asia Pacific market, the world’s largest LNG-importing region. However, the Asian market is in a state of flux, as is the entire global LNG sector. This article explores the major changes taking place in international LNG markets, with particular attention to how Qatar is being affected by, and is adapting to them.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Charles Lister, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on the international fallout from President Trump’s Jerusalem announcement and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Syria and then to Turkey to discuss Syria, Jerusalem, and energy matters.

The commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force today called leaders of Palestinian “resistance groups” to pledge Iran’s “all-out support” for them in their armed struggle against Israel,

A prominent Iranian-supported Iraqi militia commander has visited the Lebanese-Israeli border and pledged to support Hezbollah in a potential war against Israel in the future, Iranian and