The Syrian Crisis Enters a New & Dangerous Phase
The following op-ed was originally published in Arabic by Asharq al-Awsat.
Defense and Security, Terrorism, US Policy in the Middle East, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Turkey
استفسارات الصحافة: [email protected]
Charles Lister is a senior fellow and the director of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute (MEI), where he focuses on Syria, terrorism, and insurgency across the Levant. His work also covers broader regional security dynamics and the evolution of jihadist movements, including al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS). Mr. Lister is concurrently a Senior Consultant to the Karam Shaar Advisory; the Founder of Syria Weekly; and a consultant to the United Nations’ International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IIIM) for Syria. Mr. Lister also serves as an expert witness and advisor on counterterrorism for US, European, and Australian law enforcement and judicial bodies.
At MEI, Mr. Lister leads two major international initiatives. The Resolving the Detainee Crisis project, a joint effort with the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization (ICSR), brings together governments and NGOs to address the challenges of detaining thousands of terrorist fighters and their families in northeast Syria. Separately, the Syria Strategy Project, in collaboration with the Atlantic Council and the European Institute of Peace, engages over 80 experts and 25 governments and Syrian entities to shape multilateral approaches to resolving Syria’s conflict. In March 2025, the project published a report, “Reimagining Syria: A Roadmap for Peace and Prosperity Beyond Assad.”
Before joining MEI, he was a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Doha and a senior consultant to the multinationally backed Syria Track II Dialogue Initiative, where he led years of direct engagement with the leadership of more than 100 Syrian armed opposition groups.
He is the author of The Syrian Jihad: Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Evolution of an Insurgency (Oxford University Press, 2016), The Islamic State: A Brief Introduction (Brookings Press, 2015), and the editor of Winning the Battle, Losing the War: Addressing the Drivers of Non-State Armed Actors and Extremist Groups (MEI, 2019). His next book, also on Syria, is forthcoming from Oxford University Press.
He holds a first-class MA (Hons) in International Relations from the University of St. Andrews.
He is fluent in French.
The following op-ed was originally published in Arabic by Asharq al-Awsat.
Do a series of recent diplomatic moves by Saudi Arabia signal an opportunity for de-escalation of regional conflicts in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen? MEI scholars Gerald Feierstein, Randa Slim, and Charles Lister join Paul Salem to discuss the dynamics playing out between Riyadh and Tehran as the war against ISIS enters its final phase.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Eran Etzion, W. Robert Pearson, Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, and Randa Slim weigh in on the implications of Israel-Palestinian violence for U.S. foreign policy, Turkish involvement in the Gulf crisis, al-Qaeda’s response to the U.S. decision to terminate support for a program arming anti-Assad Syrian rebels, confrontational U.S. policy towards the Iran nuclear deal, and a former Iraqi Prime Minister’s power play.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Yousef Munayyer, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent events including the battle for Mosul, corruption in Pakistan, Mahmoud Abbas’s trip to China, and Rouhani’s difficult second presidential term.
Mosul Turning Ugly, Raqqa Front Slows
Charles Lister, Resident Fellow
Read the full article on The Daily Beast.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Charles Lister, and Mabrouka M’Barek provide analysis on the progress of ongoing negotiations over peace in Syria, rising tensions in Idlib province between Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Ahrar al-Sham, and Tunisia’s lobbying efforts to ensure continued U.S. aid.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, W. Robert Pearson, and Yousef Munayyer provide analysis on ISIS’ continued threat to security despite losing territory, President Erdogan’s upcoming visit to Sudan as a political calculation, and Mohammed Dahlan’s effort to return to Palestinian politics.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on eastern Syria as a new hotbed of geopolitical competition, Iranian responses to the Islamic State attack, additional U.S. troops in Afghanistan, and renewed Saudi succession speculation.
Russia’s claim to have killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in an airstrike in Raqqa on May 28 should be taken with a heavy grain of salt. At the time in question, the U.S.-led Syrian Democratic Forces (S.D.F.) were only days away from launching their final assault on the city and there’s no logical reason imaginable why Baghdadi would have risked staying in a surrounded, sitting target. Notwithstanding justified doubts surrounding Baghdadi’s then presence in Raqqa, Russia’s statement also says its strike killed another 330 ISIS fighters – which is almost certainly an absurd claim.
In this week’s Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the beginning of the final phase of the battle to retake Mosul, Germany’s consideration for withdrawing troops from Turkey, and Qatar’s fragile relations within the G.C.C.
“There are really big problems right now,” a conservative Islamist cleric close to Syria’s armed opposition told me – “al-Qaeda is trying to create a new loyal faction in Idlib, but that’s being prevented by al-Hayat.” As this influential cleric and four other similarly well-connected Islamist opposition figures have described to me in recent days, al-Qaeda’s central leadership is growing increasingly exasperated at its former Syrian affiliate – now named Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (H.T.S.), after a second rebrand in January 2017 – and is now actively seeking to build a rival movement more loyal
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, Eran Etzion, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the resumption of Syria talks in Geneva, President Trump’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia and Israel, and the latest developments in the home stretch of Iran’s presidential election.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, and Jonathan M. Winer provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Secretary of State Tillerson, Iranian President Rouhani’s battle for re-election, and the efforts to strike a deal for the future of the Libyan state.
The following testimony was presented to the United States House Committee on Foreign Affairs on April 27, 2017.
Mr. Chairman, Mr. Ranking Member, Members of the Committee:
First, thank you for providing me with this opportunity to speak to you today, and to address the situation in Syria and what policy options the United States might consider going forward.