Democracy and Human Rights, Great Powers in the Middle East, Iraq, Syria, Turkey
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Gönül Tol is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), where she focuses on Turkish politics, US-Turkey relations and regional dynamics in the Middle East.
A frequent commentator, Dr. Tol has written extensively on Turkish domestic and foreign policy for publications such as Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, Foreign Policy, and The Financial Times. Her articles include “Turkey Is Now a Full-Blown Autocracy” in Foreign Affairs (March 2025), “The Indispensable Erdogan” in The New York Times and “Erdogan Sees Nothing But Opportunity in Syria” in The Financial Times (December 2024).
She is the author of Erdogan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria (Oxford University Press, 2023).
She holds a PhD and MA from Florida International University, and a BA from Middle East Technical University.
She is a native Turkish speaker.
The incident threatens to spark a major crisis between the two countries, and potentially between Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s Gulf allies, putting much-needed Gulf investment at risk.
The one good thing that has come out of the ongoing tension in Turkey-U.S. relations has been the rapprochement between Turkey and its key European allies. With no immediate prospect of normalization with Washington, Erdogan now feels he must mend ties with the European countries that he called “Nazi remnants” not long ago to help his country’s ailing economy.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Robert S. Ford, Bilal Y. Saab, and Mirette F. Mabrouk provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Turkey-U.S. cooperation in Syria amid diplomatic tensions, talks between U.S. and Russian officials on Syria policy, the implications of a new Iranian fighter jet, and Egypt’s revitalized work in regional diplomacy.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Robert S. Ford, Randa Slim, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on Turkey’s currency crisis, talks in Ankara over the future of Idlib, Abadi’s chances of clinging to the premiership, and the Taliban’s capture of Ghazni.
This week, the Trump administration reimposed economic sanctions on Iran, targeting mainly financial transactions with and commercial airline sales to Iran. Tougher sanctions to stop the sale of Iranian gas and oil will go into effect in November. In a tweet, President Donald Trump issued a strong warning to those trading with Iran: “Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States.” Its NATO ally Turkey is defiant. In a Jul.
This piece was co-authored by Aykan Erdemir. Read the full article on The Globalist.
The Trump administration has now made good on its threat to sanction Turkey if Ankara refused to release an American pastor from custody.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts provide analysis on Secretary Pompeo’s speech on Iran, Erdogan’s decision to lift Turkey’s state of emergency, the cease-fire in Gaza, Iran’s continued threat in Syria, Trump’s tweets on Iran, and Vice President Dostum’s return to Afghanistan.
Trump’s Iran gamble
Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow @AlexVatanka
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed victory in critical presidential and parliamentary elections on Sunday. The vote grants him five more years in office as well as unprecedented powers in a powerful presidential system. His critics had hoped that this time they had a real shot at defeating the strongman. The notoriously fractured opposition had united to deny the ruling party a parliamentary majority. The main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), had fielded a firebrand candidate who was determined to reach out well beyond the party’s secularist, nationalist base.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Ahmad Majidyar, Alex Vatanka, Jean-François Seznec, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Gonul Tol, and Randa Slim provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Europe’s scramble to salvage the Iran nuclear deal following the U.S. withdrawal, Iran’s response to Russia’s call for all foreign forces to leave Syria, a meeting by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia to discuss the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iran, the arrest of women’s rights activists in Saudi Arabia, new political tensions in Pakistan, a push in the U.S.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Nathan Stock, Alex Vatanka, Ruba Husari, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the fallout from President Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Iran’s diplomatic efforts with Europe to keep the nuclear deal alive, how Iran’s other trading partners are responding to U.S. warnings of sanctions, and Britain’s efforts to cultivate closer ties with Turkey.
Turkey is going to the polls, again. On Apr. 18, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for snap elections, bringing forward presidential and parliamentary polls scheduled for November 2019 to this June. The vote will seal the country’s transition from a parliamentary system to a supercharged executive presidency. If Erdogan wins, many think it will be the final nail in the coffin of Turkish democracy. Should Erdogan lose, he will lose more than his grip on power. Stakes are high and all parties are bent on fighting tooth and nail.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Paul Salem, Nathan Stock, Alex Vatanka, Gerald Feierstein, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including upcoming snap elections in Turkey, Lebanon’s Free Patriotic Movement party, protests in Gaza, the future of the Iran nuclear deal, Yemeni peace talks, and the ISKP attack on Shiite Hazaras.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Syria strikes, Turkey’s Assad paradox, the Arab League summit, EU’s view of the Iran nuclear deal, and clashes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
