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Ragui Assaad is Professor at the Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs at the University of Minnesota. He has written extensively on labor market and youth issues in the Middle East and North Africa. The author acknowledges the able research assistance of Stefan Johansson in the preparation of this essay.
An operation that Donald Trump said could take Iran out “in one night” has now turned into a regional war that has just entered its sixth week, with the US president appearing increasingly frustrated over the situation.
The following study discusses the role of Lebanon’s gold reserves in the establishment of a currency board and evaluates four policy options: a true currency board, constrained central bank reform, full dollarization, and a unified managed float. Gold reserves are relevant under all four. The conclusion is consistent across them: no monetary framework, however carefully designed and however well backed, can substitute for the prior political decision on who bears Lebanon’s losses and how the state will finance itself sustainably.
The United States and Israel have done significant damage to Iran’s military and security apparatus. Senior commanders have been killed at a pace rarely seen in modern warfare.
Iran’s leadership did not take long to respond to President Donald Trump’s latest address on the war. Regime-linked media dismissed the April 1 White House speech as a repetition of earlier claims, while officials and commentators close to the Iranian government framed it as further evidence that Washington remains uncertain about its own course. In the battle over messaging, Trump’s ambiguity is giving Iran’s narrative the edge.
This special episode of Middle East Focus features a conversation from MEI’s Virtual Briefing Series. Host Alistair Taylor is joined by former National Security Council Senior Director Stephen Flanagan and MEI Senior Fellow Iulia-Sabina Joja to discuss the impacts of the Iran war on US-European relations. The conflict has hit Europe’s economy hard and created deep divisions across the continent, even as some European countries play a quiet supporting role to the US. President Donald Trump has called for NATO member states to help secure shipping through the Iranian-blocked Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for international maritime trade. Flanagan and Joja explore the prospects for stepped-up European military involvement, the knock-on effects on the war in Ukraine, and the potential longer-term impact on the future of the US-European alliance.
When the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran a month ago, the Middle East was plunged into debilitating conflict. Nevertheless, Syria has remarkably just completed its most stable month in 15 years. Damascus and its international partners must capitalize on this opportunity.
Libya’s stability has taken on renewed strategic importance as the impact of the US and Israeli war with Iran reverberates through global energy markets. Sustaining existing Libyan oil production depends on a governing arrangement capable of keeping ports open, pipelines flowing, and revenues distributed without triggering conflict.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are confronting the greatest threat to their economic security and energy strategy since their formation. The economic fallout of the US-Israeli war with Iran is severe, but uneven across the Gulf. So too is each state’s ability to sustain energy exports and protect critical infrastructure—both of which have been targeted unequally by Iran.
The US-Israeli war against Iran has created the largest disruption to global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies in modern history. There is a tremendous amount of economic uncertainty for Gulf states to navigate, and it will reshape the way they engage with one another and with Iran, Israel, and the United States for years to come. But this war has also laid bare how urgently the United States needs to update its own approach toward the Gulf states when it comes to energy.
Israel’s escalating campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah is rapidly turning Lebanon into one of the most unstable fronts in the wider US-Israel confrontation with Iran — pushing an already fragile state to the brink. The war is tearing at Lebanon’s sectarian and political fabric, displacing Shiite communities and deepening polarization between Hezbollah and its rivals.
