Shahmahmood Miakhel

Cost estimates for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction already exceed many hundreds of billions of dollars. Given the Western world’s slowing economic prospects, Ukrainian elites admit that China looks increasingly likely to have a role in helping finance and rebuild Ukrainian infrastructure. But Chinese involvement comes with economic and security risks.

Now entering their fourth month of defiance, the people of Iran continue to protest the regime of Ali Khamenei. Since protests began in September, the crackdown by security forces has become increasingly severe and the government has now begun executing protesters. According to figures from the Human Rights Activists News Agency, as of Dec. 15, nearly 500 protesters have been killed and almost 20,000 people have been arrested.

The latest U.N. IPCC report details the alarming changes that Mediterranean countries will experience in the coming decades due to climate change, highlighting three critical areas — warming and droughts, declining ecosystems, as well as socioeconomic and public health risks.

Ten of the most important or far-reaching events and trends that dominated the MENA region in 2022.

Recommended readings selected by MEI’s book review editor from reviews published in this year’s issues of The Middle East Journal. Subscribe to MEJ to read full reviews of these and other new publications exploring the history, culture, and contemporary issues shaping the modern Middle East and North Africa region.

As Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine turned into protracted positional and attrition warfare, often speculative reports emerged about the imminent reduction of the Russian military presence in Syria. Several factors may explain the changes in the Russian military presence in Syria and its future.

With COP27 concluded, we asked experts from across MEI, some of whom attended the meeting, to offer their perspectives on the developments that came out of the conference and what it means moving forward, especially for the Middle East and North Africa. 

Kremlin-linked oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the notorious Wagner Group PMC, is taking power away from the traditional Russian military establishment and fostering President Putin’s dependence on his resources and advice. This trend will undoubtedly propel the escalation of the war in Ukraine and possibly inflict irrevocable damage to the future utility of the Russian Armed Forces.

Competition for jobs was high in Georgia even prior to the influx of Russians. So the arrival of tens of thousands of working-age, often high-skilled individuals from an antagonistic country could, if it has not already, lead to further frustration among Georgians.

A vital part of Iran’s long-running grey zone warfare strategy is plausible deniability, as they most often work through proxies in the Middle East. And so the easiest way to keep Iran from taking action is to make sure the Islamic Republic knows the spotlight is on them.

Many big polluters around the world, including in the Middle East and North Africa, use “greenwashing” to cover up their environmentally detrimental practices by claiming they are sustainable, eco-friendly, and low carbon in an effort to deceive people about climate action. This creates the false impression that everything has changed without actually changing anything at all.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.