Supporting anti-Taliban fighters will spark a return to civil war, antagonize Pakistan, and draw the United States back into a conflict it sought to put behind it.
Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan are high right now but both sides will very likely soon step down. Neither Tehran nor Baku can afford to let recent events lead to a full-fledged crisis or a military showdown between the two Shi’a Muslim-majority countries. On the surface, this latest spat is about Azerbaijan’s resentment toward Iran for providing an economic lifeline through trade and transit options to its landlocked arch nemesis, Armenia. In reality, the split that underpins the ongoing Iranian-Azerbaijani tensions is more about fundamental foreign policy choices that Tehran and Baku have each made and are unlikely to reverse.
Why Washington has provided King Abdullah with political cover to engage the Assad regime
Jordan is going full speed ahead in normalizing relations with the Syrian regime, 10 years after it suspended political and economic ties with its northern neighbor in the wake of the eruption of the Syrian uprising. On Oct. 3, and in the first public contact between Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since 2011, Amman announced that the king had received a call from Assad. Talks focused on bilateral relations and ways to strengthen cooperation. The king stressed Jordan’s support for efforts to back Syrian territorial integrity, sovereignty, and unity. Jordan had allowed the Syrian embassy to remain open in Amman and kept a skeleton staff at its embassy in Damascus.
Does a new Israeli government mean a new regional policy? A look at the first 100 days
Naftali Bennett found his way to the Israeli prime minister’s office, even though his party won only six out of 120 seats in the Knesset (the Israeli parliament) in the March 2021 elections. He replaced the country’s long-time prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who held the position for a combined total of 12 years and set the tone for Israeli policy, especially in the region. With the new government, formed in June, recently passing the 100-day mark, it is time to ask whether the change in the prime minister’s office has resulted in a real change in Israel’s regional policy.
Algeria’s foreign policy: Between hope and reality
On Oct. 2, Algerian authorities recalled their ambassador to France for consultations amid rising tensions between the two countries. This followed France’s imposition of stricter restrictions on visa quotas for Algerians and critical comments from the French president, Emmanuel Macron. Relations between France and Algeria have long been complicated for historical reasons, but this latest episode comes after a bigger diplomatic crisis between Algeria and Morocco, which resulted in Algiers announcing on Aug. 25 that it was cutting diplomatic relations with Rabat. These actions demonstrate Algeria’s newly assertive foreign policy approach that capitalizes on its military and diplomatic corps. This includes high-level meetings of Army Chief of Staff Said Chengriha and frequent visits by Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra to Algeria’s neighbors to rehabilitate the country’s image after years of absence.
Avoiding water bankruptcy in the drought-troubled Southwest: What the US and Iran can learn from each other
It was another hot, dry year in the western U.S., with almost the entire region in drought. Vital reservoirs have fallen to dangerous lows. More than 7,000 miles away, Iran is grappling with water problems that are similar to the U.S. Southwest’s but more severe.
Moscow may be disillusioned with the new officials in Tehran
The new government of Iran, under President Ebrahim Raisi, still looks like a black box. It isn’t yet clear what policy the new officials in Tehran want to pursue in the nuclear negotiations — or even if they will negotiate at all. Hossein Amirabdollahian, Iran’s new foreign minister, shed some light on this darkness and said that “consultations are underway within the new Iranian government on how to continue the Vienna nuclear talks.” It appears the “consultations” have reached a meaningful point and the replacement of key positions has begun in the foreign policy apparatus. As a first move, Ali Bagheri Kani, a conservative close to former top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, replaced Abbas Araghchi, the political deputy foreign minister. The emerging new team in Tehran looks strange not only to the U.S. and Europe, but also to Russia.
Across the Maghreb, support for all outside actors, including China and Russia, remains low
In recent years, China and Russia have gradually increased their influence in the Maghreb. The two powers, relative newcomers to the regional scene compared to Europe and the U.S., have been building stronger commercial, security, and diplomatic ties to the Maghreb countries of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. However, these ties have not yet translated into significant popular approval or support.
ما هي احتمالات إعادة إحياء القيادة المركزية للقاعدة؟ يستعرض إبراهيم الأصيل رأياً لتشارلز ليستر مدير برنامج مكافحة الإرهاب في المعهد. — Ibrahim Al-Assil Charles Lister
