Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

While some changes may be in the offing, for now most signs suggest that regional leaders should expect neither new opportunities, nor new challenges, but more likely a broad continuity of existing EU policy toward the region.

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Arif Rafiq, Ibrahim Jalal, Michael Sexton and Eliza Campbell, and Alex Vatanka.

After more than four years of fighting, the war in Yemen continues to drag on. Although the rival parties came to a deal at the end of 2018 in Stockholm, they have failed to fully abide by its terms due to ambiguity about the future Yemeni state. Currently, there are multiple, rival authorities in different regions of the country, and the individuals in power disagree whether there should be one state, two states, or multiple states. They also disagree whether the future states of Yemen should be independent or linked through a federal or confederal system of government. Profound questions about the country’s future remain unanswered, and before negotiations can move forward the parties will likely need to address the elephant in the room: the future structure of Yemen as a state.

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Fatima Abo Alasrar, Gonul Tol, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Randa Slim, and Michael Sexton and Eliza Campbell.

In late July, Russian officials met with Yemen’s Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalik and representatives of the Houthi Supreme Political Council to discuss the resolution of the Yemeni civil war. These meetings underscored Russia’s ability to balance favorable relations with Yemen’s internationally recognized government and the Houthis: Moscow supported Abdulmalik’s vision for a political solution to the Yemeni civil war and concurred five days later with Houthi criticisms of U.S. military deployments to the Persian Gulf.

The news came eight months after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paid a visit to the Omani capital for surprise talks with Sultan Qaboos in October 2018, and four months after Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah met with Netanyahu in Poland during the Trump administration’s “Peace and Security in the Middle East” summit.

Iraq’s state-sponsored, majority-Shiite militias — called al-Hashd al-Shaabi, or the Popular Mobilization Forces — were central to the fight against ISIS, but there are major questions over their ongoing political and economic role. Enabling Peace in Iraq Center program manager Omar Al-Nidawi, American University in Iraq Sulaimani professor Akeel Abbas, and MEI’s Randa Slim join host Alistair Taylor to discuss what might happen to the force now that the threat ISIS poses has diminished.

Revolutionary Guards came to Mehdi Rajabian’s door on October 5, 2013. His crime? Running a music production company — Barg Music — that the Iranian government deemed offensive to Islam and the regime. Barg Music worked with restricted artists in Iran, particularly women, who have been legally forbidden from performing solo since the Iranian Revolution.

Despite the fiery rhetoric, the long-time conflict between Turkey and the PKK has mostly been a controlled fight following tacit rules. But recent events, including Turkey’s increased efforts to assassinate PKK leaders and the targeted killing of a Turkish consulate official in the Iraqi Kurdish capital on July 17, risk overturning the status quo and ushering in a violent new era.

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region including the Turkish-U.S. crisis meeting in Ankara on Syria, the resumption of U.S.-Taliban negotiations, Trump’s creation of a new “dovish” line on Iran, a rise in Egypt’s poverty levels, Sudan’s democratic transition, the easing of female guardianship rules in Saudi Arabia, and the end of the ceasefire in Idlib, featuring Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Paul Salem, W. Robert Pearson, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Thomas W. Lippman, and Robert S. Ford.

The UAE is reducing its military presence in Yemen and redeploying its forces. This news has spread rapidly, prompting many questions about what it could mean for the continuation or possible conclusion of the war in Yemen. However, the move will not affect the whole country equally.

The fifth generation of mobile phone networks (5G) is poised to become a key enabler of the digitalization of economies and societies. Digital transformation is at the heart of GCC nations’ ambitions to accelerate economic diversification, deliver public services more effectively and efficiently, and promote sustainable growth. GCC ambitions to accelerate the large-scale deployment of 5G dovetail with those of China’s hi-tech giant Huawei, which is competing for market share in infrastructure and smartphones. However, the US push to stymie Huawei’s efforts to expand the reach of its networking technologies has emerged as a potential stumbling block to more extensive ties between that company and GCC wireless carriers and customers.

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to draw down its troops in Yemen has led to cautious hope in the war-torn country. Fatima Abo Alasrar, senior analyst at the Arabia Foundation; Katherine Zimmerman, AEI research fellow and research manager for AEI’s Critical Threats Project; and Jerry Feierstein, MEI senior vice president and former U.S. ambassador to Yemen, join host Alistair Taylor to discuss what the drawdown means on the ground and what ramifications the move might have.

As the Islamic Republic shifts to a more muscular foreign policy in the face of mounting external pressure, its defense and security apparatus is also undergoing key changes. This includes a reshuffling within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the creation of a separate “air defense force” within the regular Army. Much less publicized, however, are reports of high-profile removals and replacements within the IRGC and more broadly, the armed forces, as part of a systematic effort to enhance their operational efficacy at a time of growing internal and external threats.

Many analysts have been dismissive of the plan’s prospects, but for Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain, there’s at least one major reason to line up with Washington on the issue: Iran.