Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

According to SIPRI’s recently published annual report, Russia’s share of global arms exports shrank by around one-fifth over the last decade, falling from 27 percent to 21 percent, while the U.S. share increased from 30 percent to 36 percent, widening the gap between the two major arms exporters. As Russia looks to reverse this decline, it is focusing on the Middle East, the world’s second-largest and fastest-growing arms market, as a way to boost its exports.

As Saudi Arabia explores options for diversifying the economy beyond petroleum export, family-friendly tourism may be the Kingdom’s new frontier.

Until two decades ago, Central Asia was a Russian playground. With increasing investment from the Gulf and China, however, the landscape has changed. The UAE, specifically, has recently been vying to play a larger role in this muslim-majority region through large investments in infrastructure.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Nathan Stock, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the government shakeup in Algeria, Egyptian President el-Sissi’s visit to Washington, rocket attacks from Gaza, Imran Khan’s war against poverty, and a $69 billion merger between Saudi Arabia’s oil and chemical giants.

The story of the Basrah Museum, which opened three new galleries on March 19th after languishing for 28 years, is nothing less than cinematic. Read it here.

ISIS’s self-proclaimed Caliphate in Syria and Iraq came to an end on March 23, when the Syrian Democratic Forces, backed by the U.S.-led international coalition, liberated the town of Baghouz after a tough six week battle. In some respects however, the military victory against ISIS was the easy part.

Following the liberation of ISIS-held territory in Syria and Iraq, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is reestablishing ties with regional actors as a means to mobilize Arab support for the Palestinian cause.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi’s first foreign trip to Egypt, the future threat posed by ISIS, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s AIPAC meeting in Washington, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Lebanon.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a four-day trip to the Gulf in early March, stopping in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE as part of a broader effort to boost Moscow’s ties with the region. Although the Gulf monarchies are traditionally considered of some of the U.S’s closest allies, relations between Russia and the Gulf have improved in recent years and there is potential for further cooperation going forward.

That the relationship between the Ba’ath regime in Syria and the ayatollahs of the Islamic Republic is one of loveless realpolitik is no secret to anyone with a passing familiarity with the history of Damascus-Tehran ties. The end of the war in Syria has already begun to expose faults in the unlikely marriage between a militant secular Arab regime rooted in the independence politics of the colonial era and the revolutionary rule of the wilayat al-faqih.

The radicalized children of the Islamic State will threaten the world for generations to come unless the president changes course.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Paul Salem, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Wa’el Alzayat, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Algeria’s ongoing political crisis, the 16th anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, criticism of the U.S.-Taliban talks by Afghanistan’s national security advisor, international fundraising efforts to aid Syria, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s fading political clout.

Jean-François Seznec and Samer Mosis, authors of “The Financial Markets of the Arab Gulf: Power, Politics and Money,” join host Alistair Taylor for a deep dive on Saudi Arabia’s financial markets and the challenges facing its economic development.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has wrapped up another round of checkbook diplomacy, showering up to $100 billion on Pakistan, India, and China during his visit to the three countries in late February. The trip was important for another reason as well: It showcased a new Saudi strategy of playing a more assertive foreign-policy role far beyond the Middle East.