The Americans Are Gone. Will Iraq’s Militias Disarm?
On September 30, the US completed its military withdrawal from Iraq, ending a 12-year-long mission to combat ISIS that began in 2014. The date was also meant to be the deadline for disarming the largely Iranian-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), but Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has now pushed that cutoff back to June 30, 2027. MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Amb. (ret.) Robert S. Ford joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss what the US military withdrawal means for Iraqi security and the nature of the bilateral relationship going forward. They also speak about what it will take for Baghdad to bring the PMF militias to heel, and how Iraq may navigate the post-Iran war era.
Jordan’s Economy Weathers Iran War’s Shocks and Finds New Opportunities
In the summer of 2003, King Abdullah II told Bloomberg Jordan sits “between Iraq and a hard place,” a play on words designed to describe the kingdom’s challenging environment to an American audience amid the US-led Iraq war to the east and the lingering Palestinian-Israeli conflict to the west. Jordan is grappling with a much “harder place” today.
Proponents of the war with Iran have taken recent increases in crude-oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz as proof that the US strategy is finally working. President Trump is so confident in this that he recently rejected a seven-day plan, set forward by Iran’s foreign ministry, to end the war and open the strait. The United States is “winning tremendously,” Trump boasted.
Iran defies Western demands over nuclear, missile and regional issues
Iranian leaders on Tuesday said they will defy Western pressure and will not renegotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear accord Tehran signed with world powers nearly three years ago. Several top Iranian officials also threatened to take drastic measures, including leaving the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), if the Trump administration terminates the nuclear accord and re-imposes sanctions on Tehran. “We increased the cost for the enemy over the past five years. And if the JCPOA collapses, we have a plan.
Top Iranian official says retaliation against Israel is “inevitable”
The Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said today that the Islamic Republic is determined to punish Israel for the latest strikes on a Syrian air base in which several Iranian military personnel were killed.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Paul Salem, Nathan Stock, Alex Vatanka, Gerald Feierstein, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including upcoming snap elections in Turkey, Lebanon’s Free Patriotic Movement party, protests in Gaza, the future of the Iran nuclear deal, Yemeni peace talks, and the ISKP attack on Shiite Hazaras.
IRGC general: Any future war will result in Israel’s annihilation
The deputy commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards today threatened to annihilate Israel in an apparent reaction to the latest Israeli military strikes against Syrian and Iranian military targets in Syria. “Listen!
Rouhani urges military to bolster defense power as Iran unveils new missiles
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani voiced support for the country’s military forces to develop advance weapons, including missiles, to enhance the Islamic Republic’s deterrence capabilities. “I am support the Artesh [Iran’s regular army] and Sepah [Islamic Revolution Guards Corps] to make any weapons needed for defense,” the Iranian media quoted the president as saying at a ceremony marking the anniversary of the Iranian Army. He emphasized that the Iranian Army and the IRGC do not need the permission of any foreign power to bolster the country’s defense capabilities.
After Khamenei, Rouhani leaves Telegram amid looming shutdown of foreign apps
The office of Hassan Rouhani today announced that the Iranian president has suspended his official account in Telegram, Iranian media reported. Rouhani’s decision came after Supreme Leader Ali Khameni’s office said yesterday that the Iranian leader would no longer use Telegram to “safeguard” Iran’s national security and “remove the monopoly of Telegram messenger”.
Amb. Robert Ford and Charles Lister join host Paul Salem to discuss last week’s U.S. airstrikes in Syria in response to the Assad government’s ongoing use of chemical weapons, what the Trump administration is signaling about America’s plans there, and the escalating standoff between Israeli and Iranian forces in the country.
Iran steps up Internet censorship as Khamenei declares war on Telegram
In the latest sign that the Iranian regime is set to further increase Internet restrictions, the office of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said today that the Supreme Leader is leaving Telegram, the most popular messaging service in Iran used by more than a half of the country’s 80 million population. All government agencies have reportedly been prohibited from using Telegram, and today’s announcement indicated that the government plans to shut down the messaging app in the near future.
Iraqi elections: crafting a democracy amid challenges
Fifteen years after the fall of the dictatorial regime of Saddam Hussein, Iraq is still engaged in the process of transitioning to a system of governance representative of its population. The new Iraq has experienced meaningful progress and serious setbacks. While the upcoming elections, slated for May, promise a further constructive push, Iraq faces serious structural impediments to progress—including a divisive political environment and significant social challenges in the wake of ISIS—and should expect incremental rather than revolutionary change.
Tehran-backed Iraqi group threatens US, vows to stand by Assad regime
A prominent Iranian-backed Iraqi militia group has said that its forces will stand by the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria to defend it against any attacks by the United States and its allies.
Rouhani and Erdogan discuss Syria after tension over US-led strikes
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan have agreed to continue cooperation in Syria despite the two countries’ differences over the latest US-led strikes against Syrian government military sites,
Iranian leaders rule out missile compromise in meeting with French foreign minister
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian paid a one-day visit to Tehran on Monday to discuss Iran’s controversial missile program and regional activities. Iranian leaders told the top French diplomat that European countries should put pressure on the Trump administration to keep and implement that Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal Iran signed with world powers in July 2015.
How sustainable is Russian-Saudi energy cooperation?
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told journalists in New York last week that the kingdom is looking at extending its oil production-cut deal with Russia for 10 to 20 years.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Syria strikes, Turkey’s Assad paradox, the Arab League summit, EU’s view of the Iran nuclear deal, and clashes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry: “Resistance forces” to punish Israel for Syria strikes
conference in Tehran, Bahram Qassemi said “the aggression on Syrian soil was illegal” and emphasized that the Israeli attack will not go unanswered this time. “Israel will receive the required responses sooner or later,” he told at the briefing. “They cannot take (such) an action and be exempt from punishment,” he added. “The time for hit and run has passed for Israel, and the resistance forces in the region are capable of retaliating fittingly.” The spokesman also said Tehran is considering legal action against Israel, but did not elaborate.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
