The Americans Are Gone. Will Iraq’s Militias Disarm?
On September 30, the US completed its military withdrawal from Iraq, ending a 12-year-long mission to combat ISIS that began in 2014. The date was also meant to be the deadline for disarming the largely Iranian-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), but Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has now pushed that cutoff back to June 30, 2027. MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Amb. (ret.) Robert S. Ford joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss what the US military withdrawal means for Iraqi security and the nature of the bilateral relationship going forward. They also speak about what it will take for Baghdad to bring the PMF militias to heel, and how Iraq may navigate the post-Iran war era.
Jordan’s Economy Weathers Iran War’s Shocks and Finds New Opportunities
In the summer of 2003, King Abdullah II told Bloomberg Jordan sits “between Iraq and a hard place,” a play on words designed to describe the kingdom’s challenging environment to an American audience amid the US-led Iraq war to the east and the lingering Palestinian-Israeli conflict to the west. Jordan is grappling with a much “harder place” today.
Proponents of the war with Iran have taken recent increases in crude-oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz as proof that the US strategy is finally working. President Trump is so confident in this that he recently rejected a seven-day plan, set forward by Iran’s foreign ministry, to end the war and open the strait. The United States is “winning tremendously,” Trump boasted.
“Iran has shared water [resources] with 12 neighboring countries. Drought can become a source of cooperation or friction,” Major General Yahya-Rahim Safavi, military adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said at the Water Diplomacy and Hydro-politics Conference on Tuesday.
The gravity of Safavi’s statement is best understood against the background of the water crisis in Iran and the country’s existing water disputes with neighboring countries.
The Baghdad Declaration: good neighborhood principles for the Middle East
Over the course of the last three years, the Middle East Institute convened a regional dialogue involving participants acting in their personal capacities from Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates and Turkey. The dialogue also involved participants from China, Europe, Russia and the United States. The discussions resulted in the following declaration of good neighborhood principles for the Middle East agreed in Baghdad 15-16 December 2017.
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The Middle East dialogue, which began its twice-a-year meetings in October 2012, convened its eleventh meeting in Baghdad 15-16 December. Participants included current and former officials and senior experts from Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria and United Arab Emirates as well as China, Europe, Russia, and the United States.
Iran-backed Afghan fighters in Syria vow to battle Israel and Saudi Arabia next
Sayed Ali-Asghar Hosseini, an Afghan national living in Iran, says he hopes to quickly recover from injuries he sustained in the Syrian conflict in order to return to the Arab country and take part in the next phase of war against Israel and Saudi Arabia. “Our real war with Israel and the al-Saud family is still there.
Tehran fails to appreciate European efforts to preserve the nuclear deal
Sobh-e Sadeq, a weekly outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), has lashed out at European powers for cooperating with Washington on the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. One of its lead articles on February 26 condemned the “shameless behavior of the European troika” – referring to France, Germany and Britain which are the three signatories of the Iran deal.
Iran-backed Asaib Ahl al-Haq: We’ll form next Iraqi government and will expel US forces
The head of a prominent Iranian-backed militia group in Iraq has said that the priority of the next government in Baghdad will be to “expel the American forces from Iraq and terminate the strategic cooperation agreement between the two countries.” Qais al-Khazali, who is the leader of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, also predicted that a coalition of Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) will form the next government after the upcoming parliamentary elections slated for May 12.
Tightening the screws on Pakistan | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Marvin G. Weinbaum, Charles Lister, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the placement of Pakistan on a global terrorist financing “gray list,” the ongoing assault on eastern Ghouta following a UNSC cease-fire resolution, and diplomatic efforts on the war in Yemen.
Iran has announced that it will allow Iraqi travelers and businesspeople to visit the Iranian cities of Abadan and Khorramshahr without the need for a visa, Iranian and Iraqi media reported. According to the consulate general of Iran in the Iraqi city of Basra, Tehran is waiting for the Iraqi government to approve the new policy and cancel the visa requirement for its citizens planning on traveling to the two Iranian cities.
Tehran says attacks on Eastern Ghouta will continue despite UN resolution
In defiance of a 30-day ceasefire resolution by the UN Security Council, Tehran said on Sunday that pro-Damascus forces would continue military operations against a rebel-held enclave near the Syrian capital,
IRGC sends medical units to Syria and Iraq to help “resistance front”
Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has dispatched medical practitioners and equipment to Syria and Iraq to treat those injured in combat from its allied forces, a top IRGC general revealed earlier today.
Jazayeri: Iran and its anti-US “resistance” allies will shape Middle East’s future
Every resistance group emerging in the region is a “thorn in the eye” of the United States and Israel and the future of the Middle East belongs to Iran and its regional allies, Brigadier General Massoud Jazayeri, the deputy chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, said today.
Iran's energy potential: domestic and regional implications
Decision-makers in Iran are in a unique position. Years of sanctions, which ostracized the country and crippled its economy, have been lifted, giving way to a deluge of foreign investment in energy, consumer goods and other key economic sectors. These two factors together have already paid political dividends for the leadership in Tehran, which has used the influx of investment to finance its military opposition to the Saudi-led Sunni bloc in Syria and Yemen and to legitimize its status as a critical regional and even global actor.
Afghan authorities say Iran-trained militants planned to sabotage TAPI inauguration
Afghan authorities in Herat Province today paraded a group of 10 militants who were reportedly trained in Iran to sabotage the inauguration ceremony of the landmark TAPI gas pipeline project in western Afghanistan. Mohammad Ayub Alizai, the head of the extremist group, claimed that he and his colleagues had received all necessary training and equipment to disrupt the ceremony.
Iran-Backed group: We’ll avenge our casualties by cleansing Iraq of US presence
The secretary-general of Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iraqi militia group with close ties with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), has said that the group will avenge the blood of Iraqi paramilitary forces recently killed in the Iraqi province of Kirkuk by “cleansing” Iraq of the American presence,
IRGC seeking to exploit rising instability in Khuzestan Province
The latest anti-regime protests and internal security problems are more damaging to Iran’s national security than external threats, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, warned today.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
