After nearly four months of war, the US and Iran have signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding declaring the conflict over, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and beginning talks toward a final deal. Alan Eyre, MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow and a core member of the 2015 JCPOA negotiating team, joins host Alistair Taylor to unpack the deal’s implications for both countries, its ripple effects across the region, and what a lasting settlement would take.
This backgrounder provides an overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a regional political and economic alliance comprising six states in the Arabian Peninsula: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
The once powerful Iranian reformist parties are today on the political margins. While they continue to enjoy significant support from voters at election times – which was last evident in the 2016 parliamentary elections when reformists secured about 41% of the vote – the public no longer seems to believe reformists can instill serious reform in Iran. In particular, the Iranian youth of today, which used to be the bedrock of support for reformists, is noticeably disillusioned with the political process in the country.
Fars News, an outlet that is linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), reported that ethnic Chechen forces from Russia are now acting as police units in the Syrian city of Aleppo. The outlet reported that Chechens had also from December 2016 been deployed “to serve in the military police to protect Russia’s Khmeimim air base in Syria.”
Tehran’s fears of losing out influence during the ongoing peace talks on Syria in Astana were evident even in the makeup of the Iranian delegation. According to Iranian sources, Tehran had been compelled to dispatch a top military figure with extensive experience in Syria in order not to be eclipsed by Russian and Turkish militaries.
Iran, Russia and Turkey agreed earlier today to establish a trilateral mechanism to enforce the fragile cessation of hostilities in Syria. After a two-day meeting in Kazakhstan sponsored by Moscow, the trio issued a joint statement that called for “a political process based on the implementation of the UN Security Council resolution 2254” to end the Syrian civil war.
Iran-Backed Militia Units Continue West Mosul Operations
A senior Iraqi official has said that the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) will take part in the “liberation” of western Mosul. “The popular mobilization forces in Nineveh Province will participate in the liberation operation of Tal Afar,” Iraqi National Security Advisor Falih al-Fayyad said in an interview with Iranian state-run Al-Alam News Network published on January 23.
Iran Stresses Saudi Exclusion from Syria Peace Process
Earlier today, Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed to jointly monitor the fragile cessation of hostilities in Syria and pledged to work for a political solution to end the Syrian civil war. But while Moscow and Ankara are trying to broaden the scope of future discussions on Syria, Tehran continues to oppose the inclusion of the United States and regional Sunni states in the process.
Monday Briefing: Middle East Reactions to Trump's Inauguration
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Gerald Feierstein, and Charles Lister provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including U.S.-Middle East relations in the new Trump administration, the view of Trump’s inauguration from Tehran, the Gulf’s ‘wait and see’ approach to the new administration, and Russia’s public position on Syria talks at the outset of talks in Astana.
Iranian Delegation Reportedly Visited Helmand to Deliver Weapons to Taliban
Afghan officials say Iran has recently sent a delegation to meet with Taliban commanders in the restive province of Helmand. On January 23, Hayatullah Hayat, the governor of Helmand, told Afghanistan’s 1TV channel that the National Directorate of Security was probing allegations that the Iranian team also delivered weapons to the Taliban militants in Helmand’s Garmsir District.
Iran Upholds Five-Year Jail Term for British-Iranian Mother
On January 22, the Iranian Judiciary confirmed that a Revolutionary Court in Tehran had upheld a five-year jail term for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian charity worker incarcerated in Iran’s notorious Evin Prison. Judiciary Spokesman Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i did not make public the specific charges against her, but called her a “security convict.”
There is still plenty of anger among the Iranian population about the January 19 fire and collapse of a historic high-rise building in downtown Tehran. The number of casualties is still unknown as the emergency services are still finding bodies under the rubble.
Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran’s atomic agency, warned President Donald Trump that if he tears the 2015 nuclear agreement apart Iran will “increase its nuclear activities at a more advanced level.” Salehi’s remarks were in reaction to Trump’s phone conversation with the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu.
The reaction in Tehran to Trump arriving in the White House has been cautious, but composed. The two dominant factions inside the Iranian regime, the moderates and the hardliners, appear to agree on the question of Iran’s posture toward the Trump presidency. Early signs of this emerging consensus points to an Iran that will have to be less provocative in its actions in the Middle East in order to avoid American reprisals. Even the most hawkish voices in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps have warned about “sensitive days ahead between Iran and American generals.”
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
