The Other MoU: Launching a Europe-Gulf Resilience Initiative After the US-Iran Deal
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran may have ended one of the most consequential Middle Eastern crises in decades, but it has not resolved the strategic problem it exposed. Whether the 60-day talks it set in motion will produce a final agreement remains far from certain.Yet the central lessons are already clear: Iran has preserved significant leverage, Washington has had to scale back its ambitions, and Europe and the Gulf face the prospect of protracted regional tension. Europe and the Gulf should therefore use the aftermath of the US-Iran deal to articulate their own “other MoU”: a Europe-Gulf Resilience initiative.
A Post-War Model for Verifying Iran’s Missile Arsenal
This study proposes a model for constraining and verifying Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal by employing a layered Strategic Verification Model with seven components: comprehensive baseline declarations; missile test and launch monitoring; intrusive inspections; quantitative and qualitative limits on missile capabilities; production controls, especially on solid-fuel manufacturing; a robust enforcement and compliance architecture; and regional confidence building measures.
Iran and the West at a Crossroad: Will Recent Elections Make or Break a Deal on Iran's Nuclear Program?
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has described upcoming talks with Iran over its nuclear program as "the last chance to resolve the crisis." Yet as the final hour approaches for an opportunity to avert a military attack, there are few apparent signs Iran will make compromises. Recent parliamentary elections have only strengthened the power of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the hardliners in his inner circle who aspire to make the Islamic republic a regional superpower.
Introduction to Public Health in the Middle East: Building a Healthy Future
Originally posted September, 2011
The flow of ideas, people, and commerce across national boundaries has been occurring with breathtaking rapidity in the broader Middle East, as elsewhere. These increasingly dense exchanges have generated new threats and vulnerabilities that have tended to impact women, children, and the poorest members of society disproportionately. They also have given people more resources and opportunities with which to shape their lives and their futures.
The total number of Bahraini citizens is reported to be about 570,000 nationals, less than half of a total population of over 1.2 million.[1] Nevertheless, this very small number makes up an amazingly complex society comprised of groups and subgroups with different interests and agendas. A short unpacking of Bahraini society may shed some light on the problems facing the Kingdom in 2012, and perhaps guide us through possible steps toward reconciliation.
Are Iran’s leaders rational actors? This question matters when justifying any decision by Israel to preempt Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. An Iranian regime seen as driven to destroy the Jewish state has to be dealt with differently than one whose objectives are mediated by calculations of costs and benefits. Deterrents that would be normally expected to restrain a state would not work with an irrational Iran.
Introduction to Revolution and Political Transformation in the Middle East: Government Action and Response
Originally posted September 2011
On August 21, 2011, rebel forces in Libya rolled into the capital Tripoli, seemingly finishing off months of armed combat and foreign intervention and bringing down yet another Arab head of state. At the same time, sporadic but violent repression of protests in Syria continues, while other states remain calm or have seen their protest movements fizzle. We open this second volume of our series, Revolution and Political Transformation¸ at a time of uncertainty and transition for the region.
Reflections on the Role of American Universities in the Middle East
American higher education has been present in the region since 1866, when the American University of Beirut set the precedent for successful localization by planting roots and adapting to local society. Today, Arab governments themselves often direct and fund the cross-cultural educational export process, with far-reaching economic and social goals. For example, Qatar's U.S. branch campuses are an integral part of its broad education reform strategy designed to transform the country into a knowledge producing society. The UAE, in contrast, has adopted a business-model view of U.S.
Saudi Arabia on the Edge: The Uncertain Future of an American Ally
Of all the countries that are vital to the strategic and economic interests of the United States, Saudi Arabia is the least understood by the American people. Today's Saudis, far better informed than previous generations, are looking for new political institutions that will enable them to be heard, but these aspirations conflict with the kingdom's strict traditions and with the House of Saud's determination to retain power. Meanwhile, the country wishes to remain under the protection of American security but still clings to a system that is antithetical to American values.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
