Washington says it doesn’t know who runs Iran. Tehran insists its leadership is united. MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to sort out where the truth lies. They look at the small circle of political and military figures now steering the war effort in Tehran: who they are, how they make decisions, and how unified they really are. They also discuss the current state of US-Iran negotiations, the role of the upcoming midterm elections in the United States, and how the Islamic Republic is preparing for a potential renewal of conflict afterward.
Crude oil is flowing out of the Gulf again, but the market is no better prepared for another disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. It has assembled a temporary system for managing one. Crude exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran, returned to pre-war levels in September, while total Gulf shipments reached 15.5 million barrels a day, more than 80% of the pre-conflict volume.
Many of the immediate consequences of the Israeli-American war with Iran are already clear. The further emergence of drones and missiles as dominant weapons of war; the danger to the global economy from the threats to vital chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb; and the inadequacy of US weapons procurement, among other issues, have garnered widespread and entirely merited attention.
Iran’s coming reckoning: Regime collapse is likely — democracy is not
The collapse of the Iranian regime in its present form now seems more plausible than its survival as a functioning state. Yet the emergence of a democratic Iran remains far from certain. Between these two outcomes lies a volatile and dangerous middle ground. But much will depend on four factors.
From Peripheries to Tehran: Iran’s New Geography of Protest
Iran is once again in the midst of nationwide unrest. Protests that erupted in late 2025—initially driven by an acute economic crisis rapidly spreading across the entire country—are ongoing. Whether this latest wave culminates in revolutionary rupture, regime adaptation, or a familiar cycle of repression and exhaustion remains uncertain. What is already clear, however, is that the structural forces animating the unrest extend far beyond the present.
At the heart of Iran’s protests lies a set of sharp and enduring regional disparities that have long shaped patterns of development, political control, and social mobilization. These center–periphery divides have repeatedly rendered Iran’s border provinces more vulnerable to deprivation, marginalization, and protest, while allowing the political and economic core to absorb shocks with greater resilience. Today, those divides are under unprecedented strain, as economic hardship is no longer confined to the margins but increasingly shared across the country.
Potential US military strikes on Iran: This won’t be another 12-Day War
President Donald Trump has sharply warned the Iranian regime to halt its brutal crackdown on protesters. Amid speculation that the US is preparing for military action in Iran, Washington should take the lessons and fundamentally different context of its successful June 2025 operation against the Islamic Republic into account as it plans for how to respond.
Iran protests seem different. They may lead to real change.
People are not protesting because they suddenly discovered activism. They are protesting because the habits of coping and waiting for conditions to improve have finally stopped working.
The Middle East Institute invites you to an on-the-record briefing examining what comes next for Iran's leadership and the protest movement. To unpack these issues, we will be joined by MEI Distinguished Military Fellow Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, USN (Ret.), former senior advisor at the World Bank Nadereh Chamlou, and MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka.
Venezuela’s Shadow Over MENA: Perceptions and Precedents
MEI Vice President for Policy Ken Pollack joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to explore what the precedent set by the Trump administration’s military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro could mean for US policy in the Middle East — particularly in light of ongoing anti-regime protests in Iran. The conversation unpacks the reverberations of Operation Absolute Resolve, Washington’s options for and potential consequences of responding to the Iranian regime’s brutal crackdown, regional perceptions of recent US actions and stated objectives, and broader questions around the direction of the Trump administration’s evolving grand strategy.
Khamenei did this to himself. The US can help — without another Middle East quagmire
Last week, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei effectively greenlit mass killing to save his regime. His message was blunt: blood would be spilled to preserve the system. His security forces followed through, unleashing a level of violence against protesters that even by the Islamic Republic’s grim standards marks a dangerous escalation.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
