Washington says it doesn’t know who runs Iran. Tehran insists its leadership is united. MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to sort out where the truth lies. They look at the small circle of political and military figures now steering the war effort in Tehran: who they are, how they make decisions, and how unified they really are. They also discuss the current state of US-Iran negotiations, the role of the upcoming midterm elections in the United States, and how the Islamic Republic is preparing for a potential renewal of conflict afterward.
Crude oil is flowing out of the Gulf again, but the market is no better prepared for another disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. It has assembled a temporary system for managing one. Crude exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran, returned to pre-war levels in September, while total Gulf shipments reached 15.5 million barrels a day, more than 80% of the pre-conflict volume.
Many of the immediate consequences of the Israeli-American war with Iran are already clear. The further emergence of drones and missiles as dominant weapons of war; the danger to the global economy from the threats to vital chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb; and the inadequacy of US weapons procurement, among other issues, have garnered widespread and entirely merited attention.
The Impact of Middle East Regional Competition on Security and Stability in the Horn of Africa
The relationship between the Middle East and the Horn of Africa is centuries-old and complex. While the world’s attention is focused mainly on the “great power competition” in the region, primarily between the U.S. and China, the Horn of Africa has also become a central battleground for influence among competing regional players, principally Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, Qatar, Iran, and Egypt. As they pursue their interests in the region, from Ethiopia and Sudan to Somalia and Djibouti, these competing states are the main drivers of tension and instability in the Horn of Africa.
As Tehran looks East, can it forge stronger ties with Moscow?
Iran’s high leadership has come to a consensus on an eastward shift in its foreign policy, and Russia is a salient part of that. Recent indications suggest that, at least for now, the Russians do not want to enlarge their footprint in Iran. Yet Iran wants a more proactive Russia.
Russia, Iran, and economic integration on the Caspian
In recent weeks, reports of a potential 25-year, $400-billion deal between Iran and China have dominated the conversation about Tehran’s options for freeing itself from the punishing U.S.-imposed sanctions regime on the country. But China is not alone in seeing an embattled Iran as a major geopolitical and commercial opportunity — Russia too has ambitions of strengthening ties with Iran.
MEI’s Paul Salem and Ross Harrison join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the complexity and limitations of US diplomacy with Iran, and how the upcoming US presidential election impacts the state of play. Salem and Harrison examine the issue in depth in their recent article for The National Interest, “The Layers and Limits of Diplomacy With Iran.”
The Dangers Presented by Russian and PRC Weapons Sales to Iran
In October, the United Nations embargo on arms sales to Iran is scheduled to expire. This was a deadline specified in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal concluded by the Obama Administration. The Trump administration stridently opposes the lifting of this restriction and is lobbying within the UN Security Council to have the embargo extended indefinitely.
On July 27, the White House announced that President Donald Trump has appointed retired U.S. Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor to be the next American ambassador to Berlin. Macgregor’s appointment is already seen by some in Tehran as about more than just an American military drawdown in Germany: it is seen as a sign of a broader American policy reorientation in Europe and beyond.
I don’t understand why Iran’s Revolutionary Guards insist on conducting military exercises in the Gulf waters that are as devoid of credibility as they are comical. Because if the goal of these drills is to intimidate or change the calculations of the U.S. Navy, nobody is flinching or losing any sleep in the Bahrain-headquartered U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, or NAVCENT.
If elected, Joe Biden and his administration will face a wide range of foreign policy challenges. Possibly none will be more vexing than what to do about the clerical regime in Iran.
Monday Briefing: GERD talks continue, but political will is still lacking
This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Mirette F. Mabrouk, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Gonul Tol, Alex Vatanka, and Gerald Feierstein.
لماذا يعد رد طهران على اعتراض الولايات المتحدة لطائرة الركاب الإيرانية أكثر من مجرد حملة علاقات عامة
“تهدف السلطات الإيرانية إلى الاستفادة من هذه الحلقة كوسيلة للضغط على دول المنطقة التي توفر قواعد عسكرية للجيش الأمريكي.”
تشعر طهران بقلق شديد من اعتراض طائرة مدنية إيرانية فوق سوريا في 23 من شهر يوليو من طرف طائرتان أمريكيتان من طراز F-15. وما أثار انتباه وسائل الإعلام الغربية هو اتهام إيران للولايات المتحدة بالقيام بأعمال “قرصنة” و”إرهاب” في المجال الجوي السوري.
اتهامات طهران كانت متوقعة وتعد مجرد حلقة أخيرة في سلسلة الاتهامات والاتهامات المضادة بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران.
The potential cyber consequences of Israeli annexation of Palestinian territory
While it seems as though the immediate threat of Israeli annexation has, for the time being, faded, the incident raises an interesting new set of questions about how this particular battle will continue to play out in an increasingly digitized Middle East and the potential for retaliation by Palestinian and other actors in cyberspace, whether or not such an annexation takes place.
Monday Briefing: Red lines and rising tensions in Libya
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Mirette F. Mabrouk, Robert S. Ford, Nazila Fathi, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including rising tensions in Libya, economic turmoil and anti-regime protests in Iran, and the Jordanian high court’s decision to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood.
الأزمات الاقتصادية وعمليات الإعدام المتكررة تسببت في اندلاع احتجاجات جديدة في إيران
اندلعت احتجاجات مناهضة للنظام الإيراني في عدة مدن إيرانية أواخر الأسبوع الماضي وسط تزايد البؤس الاقتصادي، وبعد أن أيدت محكمة محلية أحكام الإعدام في حق ثلاثة شبان، مما أثار غضب الشارع.
وأظهرت مقاطع فيديو منشورة على منصة تويتر، وجودًا كثيفًا لقوات الأمن في عدة محافظات، بما في ذلك طهران، خراسان، وخوزستان التي شهدت اشتباكات دموية خلال احتجاجات نوفمبر الماضي.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
