المشرق العربي

The following testimony was delivered by Paul Salem to the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East and North Africa on November 29, 2017. For more information and video of this hearing click here.

“Chairwoman Ros-Lehtinen, Ranking Member Deutch, distinguished members of the Subcommittee, thank you for the opportunity to testify.

Summary

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Randa Slim, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Egypt’s ongoing struggle with terrorism following the recent attack in Rawda mosque, the next round of intra-Syrian Geneva negotiations, and Iran’s anxiety over Russia’s plans in Syria.

With ISIS militarily defeated in Syria and Iraq, the Fatemiyoun Division, an all-Afghan Afghan Shiite militia group fighting in Syria, says its fighters will join the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian-sponsored Iraqi militia groups to fight Israel next.

Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Eran Etzion provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Arab League meeting in Cairo to moderate the Saudi-Iran escalation, Iran’s view of the Sochi Summit as a turning point, Putin’s effort to reach an agreement on Syria before presidential elections, Afghanistan’s response to the increase of US troops on their ground, and the political upheaval in Israel as Netanyahu’s corruption case continues.

There was a time when Lebanon was a Syrian protectorate occupied by the Syrian Army. The Syrian war over the past six years, however, has somewhat reversed the roles – transforming Lebanese Hezbollah into a leading military force in Syria. Hezbollah has not only deployed thousands of its forces to fight in Syria, but it has also begun recruiting Syrian nationals.

With ISIS on the brink of defeat, Tehran and Damascus say the next phase of the conflict in Syria is for the “resistance forces” to confront the U.S. military and its local allies, particularly the Syrian Democratic Force (S.D.F.). They have dialed up anti-American propaganda and warn that a “direct confrontation” with the U.S. will be necessary if Washington decides to keep its troops in Syria for the long haul.

Seizure of Abu Kamal

Ali Akbar Velayati, a top aide to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said Tuesday that Tehran hopes Saad Hariri will return from Saudi Arabia and resume his position as Lebanon’s prime minister. “We support the unity between the March 8 and March 14 [alliances], which reached an agreement to form a government after a long time, and acted in unison to make Lebanon one of the region’s peaceful countries. This is the result of the understanding and logic of the [Lebanese] people and Islamic resistance.

November 13, 2017 – The crisis between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon and the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri appears to be largely about Yemen, says Paul Salem, Sr. Vice President for Policy Analysis, Research, and Programs at the Middle East Institute.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, contributors Paul Salem, Eran Etzion, Alex Vatanka, and Bilal Saab provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the rising tension between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon over Hezbollah’s presence in Yemen, rumors that an Israeli attack on Lebanon is imminent, the Saudis’ latest attempt to round up collective action against Iran, and the new phase in the Saudi-Iran proxy war following the recent explosion of a pipeline in Bahrain.

Read the full article on the American Interest.

It takes a certain level of political naiveté or blindness to continue to believe that Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned last week of his own volition.