المشرق العربي

According to an agreement between the United States, Jordan, Russia and Syria, armed opposition groups will voluntarily leave eastern Damascus for Jordan, from where they will ultimately be transferred al-Hasakah Governorate in northeastern Syria, Fars News Agency reports. The Iranian outlet adds that two U.S.-backed rebel groups have reached an agreement in southeastern Damascus to surrender their weapons to the Syrian government in exchange for a safe passage to Jordan.

In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Charles Schmitz, Jonathan M. Winer, and Yousef Munayyer provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Sabah’s upcoming visit to Washington, recent clashes in Yemen, the French Foreign Minister’s trip to Libya, and the U.N. Human Rights Council’s discussion on Israel/Palestine.

Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.

Iranian leaders today congratulated the Syrian government on the lifting of a siege of the eastern city of Deir Ezzor by the Islamic State. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif described the end of the three-year siege as a “significant victory” in the fight against terrorism.

Israel has weathered the campaign to oust Bashar al-Assad far better than its neighbors. Unlike many others, Israel was never a true believer in the failed effort to topple the Assad regime, preferring an opportunistic rather than a principled strategy that aimed at keeping Israel out of harm’s way.

The challenges of postwar Syria, however, may prove more daunting. Israel must now deter any interest by Syria’s Arab and Iranian allies to deploy military forces in Syria against it.

Iran wants to cooperate more closely with Turkey to resolve regional problems, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a telephone conversation earlier today. Rouhani offered his congratulations to Erdogan on the occasion of Eid al-Adha and stressed that he will do more during his second term in office to expand Tehran’s ties with Ankara in all fields.

Iran and its allies are sending reinforcements near a de-confliction zone in southeastern Syria to pressure the U.S. military to withdraw from a strategic garrison near al-Tanf border crossing. Both Tehran and Damascus see the presence of U.S. troops training rebel forces in al-Tanf, as well as in northeastern Syria, as a serious threat. Iran also views the expulsion of the U.S.

Even before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at the Black Sea resort of Sochi last Wednesday for his sixth consultation in two years with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow’s representative in Tel Aviv laid out a soothing if improbable vision of a Syria free of Iranian troops and Shiite militias.

Israelis and Palestinians tend to be invested in the notion that their conflict is unique in its intractability. But other conflicts have reached a measure of resolution, or at least extended periods of non-violence. Learning from their limited success can offer insights and key policy implications; learning from their failures can provide valuable warnings and lessons. Comparing conflicts can even humanize what’s happening in Israel and the occupied territories.

Jared Kushner was on a Middle East mission last week attempting to do what at least half a dozen U.S. emissaries and special presidential envoys have failed to do for more than two decades: putting the peace process on track toward concluding a final settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. But there was a marked change in the U.S. tone, as Kushner, accompanied by Special Envoy for International Negotiations Jason Greenblatt and Deputy N.S.A. Adviser Dina Powell, met with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt before heading to Israel and the West Bank.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Gerald Feierstein, Randa Slim, Bilal Y. Saab, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including tensions between Washington and Cairo over Egypt’s excessive authoritarian crackdown, Russia’s attempt to help mediate the G.C.C. crisis, the likely postponement of the Kurdish independence referendum, the performance of the Lebanese Army in anti-ISIS operations, and the Iraqi oil minister’s trip to Moscow to discuss oil production cuts.

Relations between Turkey and Germany have become increasingly fraught over the past few months. They hit a new low following the August 19 arrest of Turkish-born German writer Dogan Akhanli in Spain. Akhanli, a frequent critic of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was held by Spanish authorities in connection with criminal proceedings in Turkey. Germany’s foreign minister has urged Spanish officials not to extradite the writer.