As a result of the Iran war, Turkish thinking about nuclear weapons appears to be shifting. Iran’s emergent ability to threaten regional states (and possible determination to acquire a nuclear weapon itself), growing concern about Israeli aggressiveness, doubts about US security guarantees, and greater Saudi nuclear autonomy are all pushing Ankara to consider a future nuclear option.
In less than two decades, a string of offshore discoveries has turned the Eastern Mediterranean into a significant gas-producing region, making Israel an exporter, twice lifting Egypt into the ranks of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, and giving Cyprus finds it has yet to bring to market. This backgrounder explores the potential and challenges of exploiting and managing LNG resources in the region.
The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?
On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Défense Agreement, a collective-defense pact widely compared to NATO’s Article 5. This essay argues that the comparison is misleading. Mecca borrows NATO’s language of solidarity without yet possessing NATO’s institutional machinery, and the Houthi offensive against Saudi Arabia in September 2026 provided an early and revealing test of what the agreement actually means in practice. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey automatically entered the fight on Saudi Arabia’s behalf, and Washington, despite an initial reluctance to strike directly, remained indispensable through intelligence support and a major proposed F-35 sale. Drawing on realist alliance theory — Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, Glenn Snyder, and Steven David — and on the precedent of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the essay contends that the Middle East is not dividing into rival blocs but moving from hierarchy toward a looser, overlapping geometry of hedged partnerships, in which American exclusivity is eroding considerably faster than American primacy.
Balancing on a Fault Line: Turkey Between Russia, Ukraine, and the US
This webinar discussed the following looming questions: Can Turkey sustain a three-way balancing act between Russia, Ukraine, and the US? Where does Ankara stand on Trump’s peace plan, which would require Ukraine to cede territory to Russia? How does Moscow view Turkey’s S-400 dilemma? And what would the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war mean for Turkey’s security—and for its already strained relations with the West?
The Trump administration has released its new National Security Strategy—and analysts say it signals a decisive break from America’s role as the leader of the free world. Instead, the document advances an openly illiberal, strongman-centered vision of power. One former U.S. official goes further, arguing the strategy doesn’t merely abandon democracy promotion—it puts Washington in the business of promoting autocracy.
In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Gönül Tol to discuss democratic backsliding in Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
In September, just days after tens of thousands of Turks had poured into the streets to protest President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s latest crackdown on his political opponents and a fal
Markets, Mayors, and Crackdowns: Erdoğan’s High-Stakes Gamble
Turkey’s main opposition, the CHP, is facing its toughest test yet: mass arrests, sham court rulings, and the ouster of key leaders—including Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s chief rival. With trials looming that could replace CHP leadership with government loyalists, the party warns of a legal ‘coup.’ What does this crackdown mean for Turkey’s fragile economy, its 2028 elections, and the future of democracy itself?
As the dog days of August approach, we are pleased to share a curated summer reading list featuring some of VP for Policy Ken Pollack’s favorite books on the region. Covering a variety of timely and engaging topics, the list offers recommendations for anyone interested in deepening their understanding of the Middle East.
Russia’s military presence in post-Assad Syria: A growing security liability undermining stability
Six months since the collapse of the Assad regime, the Russian military presence in Syria has remained entrenched in strategic locations such as the Hmeimim airbase and Tartous port on the coast, as well as at Qamishli airport in the northeast. This persistence has reignited an increasingly pressing debate about Moscow’s role in the new Syria.
Caught in the crossfire: How the Iran-Israel war undermines Erdoğan’s agenda
Israel’s full-blown war against Iran threatens to upend regional dynamics and Turkey’s careful balancing act. The conflict presents both immediate threats and long-term strategic risks for Turkey.
Trump should build on the momentum with Syria and help prevent a Turkey-Israel clash
Two recent developments present the new Syrian government with a critical opportunity to stabilize the country. First, US President Donald Trump announced plans to lift sanctions on Syria. Second, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party declared it would disband and dissolve itself — a move that will help Damascus to finalize a deal with the Syrian Democratic Forces and integrate it into the new Syrian national army. President Trump should build on this momentum and seize the opportunity to address one of the most complex remaining challenges facing Syria: the risk of a military confrontation between Turkey and Israel inside the country.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
