As a result of the Iran war, Turkish thinking about nuclear weapons appears to be shifting. Iran’s emergent ability to threaten regional states (and possible determination to acquire a nuclear weapon itself), growing concern about Israeli aggressiveness, doubts about US security guarantees, and greater Saudi nuclear autonomy are all pushing Ankara to consider a future nuclear option.
In less than two decades, a string of offshore discoveries has turned the Eastern Mediterranean into a significant gas-producing region, making Israel an exporter, twice lifting Egypt into the ranks of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, and giving Cyprus finds it has yet to bring to market. This backgrounder explores the potential and challenges of exploiting and managing LNG resources in the region.
The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?
On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Défense Agreement, a collective-defense pact widely compared to NATO’s Article 5. This essay argues that the comparison is misleading. Mecca borrows NATO’s language of solidarity without yet possessing NATO’s institutional machinery, and the Houthi offensive against Saudi Arabia in September 2026 provided an early and revealing test of what the agreement actually means in practice. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey automatically entered the fight on Saudi Arabia’s behalf, and Washington, despite an initial reluctance to strike directly, remained indispensable through intelligence support and a major proposed F-35 sale. Drawing on realist alliance theory — Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, Glenn Snyder, and Steven David — and on the precedent of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the essay contends that the Middle East is not dividing into rival blocs but moving from hierarchy toward a looser, overlapping geometry of hedged partnerships, in which American exclusivity is eroding considerably faster than American primacy.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Bilal Y. Saab, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the unrelenting violence in Syria, President Trump’s “Buy American” plan, the Taliban’s anti-U.S. propaganda, and Erdogan’s meeting with the Vatican.
January 24, 2018 – Turkey began 2018 embroiled in domestic dissent and diplomatic friction. Last April’s constitutional referendum was met with widespread criticism as an attempt by President Erdogan to consolidate power. Activists and journalists face increasing restrictions on their rights, the government continues its crackdown on the opposition, and debates swirl over the future of Turkey’s economy, the Kurdish question, and relations with the United States and European Union.
The Multiple Sorrows of Trump’s Jerusalem Announcement | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Charles Lister, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on the international fallout from President Trump’s Jerusalem announcement and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Syria and then to Turkey to discuss Syria, Jerusalem, and energy matters.
December 4, 2017- The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation were pleased to host MEI’s 8th Annual Conference on Turkey. At a time of critical internal developments and international tensions, this program of three panels on Turkey’s domestic politics, economy, and foreign relations featured Turkish, European, and U.S. office-holders, policymakers, and expert analysts from both sides of the Atlantic.
From mixed signals over U.S. policy toward Syria’s Kurds, to an alleged kidnapping plot involving Michael Flynn, to the implication of President Erdogan in an international corruption scheme, U.S.-Turkey relations have struggled to find solid ground. Nicholas Danforth, senior policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center, and Gonul Tol, director of Turkish studies at the Middle East Institute, join host Paul Salem to explain these stories and what they mean for both countries.
Turkey’s Quest for Air Defense: Is the S-400 Deal a Pivot to Russia?
Summary
In an attempt to build up its air defense systems, Turkey is finalizing a deal to purchase the Russian S-400 weapons system. Ankara’s decision is in part a response to the threat posed by Russian involvement in Syria. Turkey is hoping that cultivating closer ties with Moscow might remove Russia as a threat. But, as this paper illustrates, the deal fails to address Turkey’s security concerns, further alienates its NATO allies, while providing Moscow more leverage over Ankara.
France and Egypt Try to Moderate Saudi-Iran Escalation | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Eran Etzion provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Arab League meeting in Cairo to moderate the Saudi-Iran escalation, Iran’s view of the Sochi Summit as a turning point, Putin’s effort to reach an agreement on Syria before presidential elections, Afghanistan’s response to the increase of US troops on their ground, and the political upheaval in Israel as Netanyahu’s corruption case continues.
