As a result of the Iran war, Turkish thinking about nuclear weapons appears to be shifting. Iran’s emergent ability to threaten regional states (and possible determination to acquire a nuclear weapon itself), growing concern about Israeli aggressiveness, doubts about US security guarantees, and greater Saudi nuclear autonomy are all pushing Ankara to consider a future nuclear option.
In less than two decades, a string of offshore discoveries has turned the Eastern Mediterranean into a significant gas-producing region, making Israel an exporter, twice lifting Egypt into the ranks of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, and giving Cyprus finds it has yet to bring to market. This backgrounder explores the potential and challenges of exploiting and managing LNG resources in the region.
The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?
On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Défense Agreement, a collective-defense pact widely compared to NATO’s Article 5. This essay argues that the comparison is misleading. Mecca borrows NATO’s language of solidarity without yet possessing NATO’s institutional machinery, and the Houthi offensive against Saudi Arabia in September 2026 provided an early and revealing test of what the agreement actually means in practice. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey automatically entered the fight on Saudi Arabia’s behalf, and Washington, despite an initial reluctance to strike directly, remained indispensable through intelligence support and a major proposed F-35 sale. Drawing on realist alliance theory — Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, Glenn Snyder, and Steven David — and on the precedent of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the essay contends that the Middle East is not dividing into rival blocs but moving from hierarchy toward a looser, overlapping geometry of hedged partnerships, in which American exclusivity is eroding considerably faster than American primacy.
Strikes on Syria: Game Changer for U.S.-Turkey Relations?
U.S. cruise missile strikes on al-Shayrat airfield northeast of Damascus early April 7 have changed the dynamics of the Syrian war. The strikes were intended as a clear and contained message to the Assad regime that the barbarism of the Syrian government has its limits. It was not a declaration of war by the United States, but it served to delineate last week’s message from the Americans that regime change in Damascus was “not practical”, a message that may have given Bashar al-Assad the impression that he now had a free hand in the war.
China-Turkey Relations Grow Despite Differences over Uighurs
Since the failed coup attempt of July 15, 2016, Turkey has been looking east for new partners to decrease Ankara’s dependence on traditional Western allies. The election of Donald Trump has contributed to the further estrangement of Turkey’s relationship with its traditional NATO allies, leaving Ankara less comfortable remaining so reliant on Washington for regional security matters.
Diplomatic Feud Between Turkey and E.U. Grows | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts W. Robert Pearson, Gerald Feierstein, Yousef Munayyer, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the simmering diplomatic feud between Turkey and the Netherlands, the Chinese offer to act as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the congressional debate whether to supply aid to the Palestinian Authority, and the growing French business footprint in Iran.
Monday Briefing: Al-Qaeda leader killed, U.S. & Russia at odds over Syria
Note: The latest issue of MEI’s Monday Briefing e-mail incorrectly linked to this page. If you’re looking for the Monday Briefing for March 6, click here.
Iran’s Scathing Attack on Turkey as Syria Peace Talks Begin in Geneva
In the latest episode of escalating diplomatic tension between Tehran and Ankara, Iran’s foreign minister today blasted latest statements by Turkish officials accusing Iran of destabilizing the Middle East and fueling sectarian divide in the region.
Ali Akbar Velayati, the top foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has dismissed Turkish charges that Tehran is engaging in dangerous sectarian policies in the Middle East.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s official trip to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar has prompted anxiety in Tehran. Erdogan arrived in Riyadh on Monday night after a visit to Bahrain, and he is scheduled to go to Qatar next.
Monday Briefing: Trump’s Executive Orders Don’t Reveal a Coherent Strategy
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Paul Scham, Randa Slim, W. Robert Pearson, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Trump administration’s apparent lack of a coherent strategy in the implementation of executive orders, the possibility of an improved relationship between Israel and the UK in the wake of Brexit, the Astana meeting to discuss the Syrian cease-fire deal, bilateral efforts to improve Turkish-Israel relations, and the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Pakistani relations under the Trump administration.
Monday Briefing: Trump Scores a Ruinous ‘Own Goal’ in the Middle East
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Robert S. Ford, and W. Robert Pearson provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Trump administration’s controversial travel ban, the Syrian regime’s dismissal of calls for a cease-fire, and the upcoming meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Kayhan, a leading newspaper that represents the most hardline of voices inside the Iranian regime, has been raising doubts about Turkish intentions in the Syrian conflict. The reservations the paper expressed come shortly after the late December 2016 Turkish-Russian-Iranian ceasefire deal aimed to kick-start the political process to find a solution to the six-year Syrian war.
