As a result of the Iran war, Turkish thinking about nuclear weapons appears to be shifting. Iran’s emergent ability to threaten regional states (and possible determination to acquire a nuclear weapon itself), growing concern about Israeli aggressiveness, doubts about US security guarantees, and greater Saudi nuclear autonomy are all pushing Ankara to consider a future nuclear option.
In less than two decades, a string of offshore discoveries has turned the Eastern Mediterranean into a significant gas-producing region, making Israel an exporter, twice lifting Egypt into the ranks of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, and giving Cyprus finds it has yet to bring to market. This backgrounder explores the potential and challenges of exploiting and managing LNG resources in the region.
The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?
On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Défense Agreement, a collective-defense pact widely compared to NATO’s Article 5. This essay argues that the comparison is misleading. Mecca borrows NATO’s language of solidarity without yet possessing NATO’s institutional machinery, and the Houthi offensive against Saudi Arabia in September 2026 provided an early and revealing test of what the agreement actually means in practice. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey automatically entered the fight on Saudi Arabia’s behalf, and Washington, despite an initial reluctance to strike directly, remained indispensable through intelligence support and a major proposed F-35 sale. Drawing on realist alliance theory — Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, Glenn Snyder, and Steven David — and on the precedent of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the essay contends that the Middle East is not dividing into rival blocs but moving from hierarchy toward a looser, overlapping geometry of hedged partnerships, in which American exclusivity is eroding considerably faster than American primacy.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A New Alternative for Turkish Foreign Policy?
In June 2012, Turkey was accepted as a “dialogue partner” at the Beijing Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Although this decision did not completely satisfy the Turkish government, which apparently preferred the status of an observer, it still had a profound meaning, as Turkey is the first NATO member state to enjoy such a privileged institutional relationship with the SCO. This new relationship has become even more significant in light of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s declaration in a televised interview in January 2013 that membership in the SCO could become an alternative to Turkey’s stalled EU accession process. More recently, the brutal suppression of the Taksim Gezi Park demonstrations by Turkish security forces heightened concerns about the future of democracy in Turkey, giving rise to more frequent comparisons between the Turkish regime and the authoritarian political systems of the SCO member states.
Turkey and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Few Shared Values and No Common Destiny
Almost every written piece on Turkey’s relations with Asia begins with a reference to the ancient Silk Road. When Turkish statesmen address Chinese audiences, they often use this metaphor to point out the “millennia-old cultural exchanges and neighborly relations” between the two countries. Inside Turkey, however, few can make sense of this anachronistic notion of shared identity. Asked about ancient Sino-Turkish ties, many will only recall how the Chinese built the “Great Wall” against the nomadic tribes of Central Asia—considered to be the forefathers of modern Turks.
On September 30, 2013, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced his government’s long-awaited reform or “democratization” package. In Turkey’s highly polarized political atmosphere, responses ranged from describing the package as a historical victory for democracy that will finally free Turkey from heavy chains imposed upon it for decades, to an electoral ploy designed to polish the country’s badly damaged image as a result of the Gezi Park incidents, with no substantial improvements in democratic standards. As often is the case, the truth lies in the middle.
Turkey: An Increasing Interest for Chinese Academia
In recent years, Sino-Turkish relations have grown increasingly close. Sino-Turkish trade, for instance, saw a sharp rise from $4.87 billion in 2005 to $19 billion in 2012, a rise of 292.09 percent. In 2005, 44,077 Chinese citizens traveled to Turkey, and this number rose to 114,582 in 2012—a 159.96 percent increase. 2013 has seen such an overwhelming number of visits and travels to Turkey from China that the Chinese government has adopted some restrictive measures, such as limiting the number of delegations from various levels of government and universities that can make the trip.
Since the West’s economic crisis in 2008, Turkey has been less keen to join the EU, and many Turks have begun to discuss the advantages of being closer to Asia, including China, the pivotal Asian force. China has been Turkey’s third-largest trading partner for ten years now, and this standing even excludes energy imports such as oil and natural gas. While both sides are intent on deepening relations in all aspects, some obstacles must be overcome in the near future, such as the trade deficit between the two countries, which leaves Turkey indebted to the powerhouse that is China to the tune of more than $20 billion annually.
Turkey’s Changing Foreign Policy Stance: Getting Closer to Asia?
Turkey’s foreign policy under the current Justice and Development Party (AKP) government continues to attract widespread attention by scholars and policy circles alike. Over the past decade, the way Turkey has formulated and implemented its policies toward the rest of the world has transformed from a traditionally status quo-ist and reactive stance that emphasizes maintaining close relations with the West to a more assertive, multidimensional, and proactive approach with a broader geographical scope. While the process of accession to the European Union (EU) remains the main axis of its foreign policy, Turkey is now showing greater interest in regions hitherto neglected, including Asia, and this interest is materializing in the form of greater dialogue between countries, expanding economic and commercial relations, and frequent exchanges between peoples.
The Middle East Institute Center for Turkish Studies’ Fourth Annual Conference on TurkeyPanel 4: The Turkey-Iran-Iraq NexusHenri J. Barkey, Lehigh UniversityAlireza Nader, RAND CorporationDenise Natali, National Defense UniversityModerator: Phebe Marr, Author and HistorianJune 14, 2013 3:30pm-5:00 pm
The Middle East Institute Center for Turkish Studies’ Fourth Annual Conference on TurkeyPanel 4: The Turkey-Iran-Iraq NexusHenri J. Barkey, Lehigh UniversityAlireza Nader, RAND CorporationDenise Natali, National Defense UniversityModerator: Phebe Marr, Author and HistorianJune 14, 2013 3:30pm-5:00 pm
The Middle East Institute Center for Turkish Studies’ Fourth Annual Conference on TurkeyPanel 4: The Turkey-Iran-Iraq NexusHenri J. Barkey, Lehigh UniversityAlireza Nader, RAND CorporationDenise Natali, National Defense UniversityModerator: Phebe Marr, Author and HistorianJune 14, 2013 3:30pm-5:00 pm
The Middle East Institute Center for Turkish Studies’ Fourth Annual Conference on TurkeyPanel 4: The Turkey-Iran-Iraq NexusHenri J. Barkey, Lehigh UniversityAlireza Nader, RAND CorporationDenise Natali, National Defense UniversityModerator: Phebe Marr, Author and HistorianJune 14, 2013 3:30pm-5:00 pm
The Middle East Institute Center for Turkish Studies’ Fourth Annual Conference on TurkeyPanel 4: The Turkey-Iran-Iraq NexusHenri J. Barkey, Lehigh UniversityAlireza Nader, RAND CorporationDenise Natali, National Defense UniversityModerator: Phebe Marr, Author and HistorianJune 14, 2013 3:30pm-5:00 pm
Panel 3: Is a Turkey-PKK Peace Deal Finally Possible? – MEI's 4th Annual Conference on Turkey
The Middle East Institute Center for Turkish Studies’ Fourth Annual Conference on TurkeyPanel 3: Is a Turkey-PKK Peace Deal Finally Possible?Ayse Betül Çelik, Sabanci UniversityChristopher Harmon, Marine Corps UniversityAliza Marcus, Author and JournalistModerator: Anna Gawel, Washington DiplomatJune 14, 2013 2:00pm-3:15pm
Panel 3: Is a Turkey-PKK Peace Deal Finally Possible? – MEI's 4th Annual Conference on Turkey
The Middle East Institute Center for Turkish Studies’ Fourth Annual Conference on TurkeyPanel 3: Is a Turkey-PKK Peace Deal Finally Possible?Ayse Betül Çelik, Sabanci UniversityChristopher Harmon, Marine Corps UniversityAliza Marcus, Author and JournalistModerator: Anna Gawel, Washington DiplomatJune 14, 2013 2:00pm-3:15pm
