In 2025, jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan made a historic call for the group to disarm and dissolve, raising hopes of ending a 40-year conflict that has shaped Turkey and the wider region. Months later, the PKK symbolically laid down arms in what many viewed as a breakthrough moment for the peace process.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
The Iran war has posed significant immediate challenges for Turkey, including rising energy prices. But Turkish officials think that Ankara could reap benefits from the war in the long term.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
يقدم هذا التقرير تقييماً مؤقتاً لاستراتيجية إدارة بايدن الشاملة تجاه الشرق الأوسط، ويبحث الفرص والمخاطر الاستراتيجية للسياسة الأمريكية في المنطقة بشكل عام.
Since Turkey’s presidential election in May, western analysts have held out hope that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will moderate his strongman style of rule. Feeding their optimism are several steps Erdoğan has taken, including appointing market-friendly technocrats to his economic team, replacing the hardline interior minister, dialling down anti-western rhetoric and voicing support for Sweden’s Nato membership. All these moves, however, are aimed at strengthening Erdoğan’s one-man rule, and the west is helping him.
Russia’s malign behavior in the Black Sea includes piracy, plunder, petroleum price cap violations, and actions to prevent the free transit of foreign commercial and naval vessels. Its largely unchallenged position in the Black Sea also helps Russia maintain access to foreign-made products and components, circumventing sanctions. The West and the broader international community have yet to act to decisively rein in these flagrant violations of international laws and norms.
Last week saw a flurry of diplomatic activity between Baghdad and Ankara. The top priorities in the talks were oil exports, the presence of the PKK in Iraq, and Iraq’s water crisis. The outcomes have been unimpressive, but there is an opportunity for Iraq to shake things up and improve its bargaining position, at least on the oil export issue, possibly more.
Turkey and Egypt, two influential regional players with a complex history of cooperation and conflict, are now working on mending their ruptured ties. As officials navigate this process, it is essential to identify practical steps to capitalize on the diplomatic breakthrough. Sustainable peace can only be ensured by shifting the focus from political ideology to shared interests. One way to do that is by creating an inclusive, multi-track process that involves state institutions, businesses, NGOs, academics, and the grassroots.
The recent military coup in Niger marks the point of no return for the unraveling of France’s dominant economic and military influence across West Africa. Turkey is the foreign actor that stands to benefit most, with the potential to emerge as a leading strategic partner for the nations of the region. Turkey’s engagement with West Africa is a unique, dual approach that blends military and economic engagement while deftly intertwining humanitarian aid and cultural outreach.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
Gender-blind development policies leave women and girls behind and exacerbate their vulnerabilities before, during, and after disasters, as was made clear by the Feb. 6, 2023 earthquake that struck southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria. By viewing disasters as gendered development problems, we can better understand the differential impact the Feb. 6 earthquake had on women and girls in Turkey and make more impactful policy recommendations.
There are currently over 5.34 million Syrian refugees dispersed in camps, collective shelters, and poor neighborhoods across Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt. Many make desperate attempts to find refuge in Europe. Instead of adopting repressive measures and discriminating against these individuals, the U.S. and European countries should work with regional partners and non-governmental organizations to limit the danger to refugees and IDPs.
It has been two months since Turkey’s new economic team took over and some progress has been made. Market normalization has begun and the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis has been reduced. At the same time, however, inflation is gaining new momentum, the budget deficit is sharply worsening, and no reform agenda has yet been announced to tackle these threats.
While some analysts attribute Egypt’s realignment toward Turkey, Qatar, and Iran to a change in the foreign policies of its influential allies, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, it can be argued that Egypt’s shift is primarily motivated by its domestic dynamics and its unfulfilled foreign policy objectives between 2014 and 2018. Egypt’s realignment, in that sense, seeks to achieve multiple unmet domestic and regional aims.
During the 500 days since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East avoided a catastrophic food crisis, thanks in part to the Black Sea grain initiative. Russia’s decision to cancel that agreement is raising fears that the return of supply shortages and skyrocketing wheat prices could quickly plunge the most vulnerable countries of the region into crisis.
The persistence of high food inflation in Turkey belies a deeper problem. Turkish agrifood production cannot adequately cope with increasing water scarcity due to climate change. Challenging Turkey’s own food security, the growing crisis also threatens Turkey’s role as a food supplier to Europe and the Middle East. Regional food supply chain breakdowns due to a decline in Turkish production would create a debilitating economic impact on both regions.
مع تحول التحديات البيئية إلى أولوية بالنسبة للدول في منطقة الشرق الأوسط والبحر الأبيض المتوسط، تظهر فرص جديدة للتعاون البيئي الإقليمي، بما في ذلك بين إسرائيل وجيرانها. على الرغم من محدودية نطاقها ومواجهتها لعدة عقبات رئيسية، إلا أن هناك جهود تعاونية إقليمية جارية، بما في ذلك على المستويين الثنائي والمتعدد الأطراف، كما أن هناك جهود جارية للحفاظ عليها وتوسيعها. يتناول هذا التقرير الجديد، الذي تم إعداده تحت رعاية منتدى المناخ الإسرائيلي، أهمية التعاون البيئي الإقليمي في الشرق الأوسط والبحر الأبيض المتوسط، ويدرس نطاق هذا التعاون بين إسرائيل وجيرانها، ويوضح الفرص والعقبات والتوصيات لزيادة التنسيق والعمل المشترك، بما في ذلك الدور الذي يمكن أن تلعبه الولايات المتحدة وأوروبا.
أقدم مطبوعة محكمة مخصصة لدراسة الشرق الأوسط المعاصر، تغطي مجلة MEI الرائدة السياسة والمجتمع والثقافة في المنطقة.
