After over a decade of division between rival factions in eastern and western Libya, the Trump administration has put forward a plan to unite the two sides through a power-sharing agreement. Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow Jonathan M. Winer to unpack the details of this proposal and its potential consequences for the Libyan people. Winer, who served as United States Special Envoy for Libya, offers analysis of the plan’s viability, the response of various actors on the ground, and whether it can stabilize the country and help resolve its deep-seated challenges.
Libya’s Fragile Equilibrium: Succession Risk and Energy Stability
Libya’s stability has taken on renewed strategic importance as the impact of the US and Israeli war with Iran reverberates through global energy markets. Sustaining existing Libyan oil production depends on a governing arrangement capable of keeping ports open, pipelines flowing, and revenues distributed without triggering conflict.
The question facing international oil companies is not whether Libya has oil and gas to develop. It does. The question is whether the country’s current political, economic, and security conditions allow that potential to be converted into reliable returns — and whether near-term changes could alter that calculation.
How Russia made Hemeimeem air base its African hub
The satellite images published on May 26 by AFRICOM appear to confirm reports that Russian MiG-29 jet fighters had flown to Libya. In fact, the MiG-29s travelled to Libya via Russia’s Hemeimeem air base in Syria, and as this latest episode makes clear, Hemeimeem plays a central role in Russia’s growing involvement in both the Mediterranean and Africa.
Are the foreign patrons of the Libyan war ready to end it?
Absent major military escalation by his foreign patrons, Khalifa Hifter has now lost the war he initiated against Libya’s internationally recognized government in Tripoli. The question remains, however, of how to end Libya’s proxy war and restart the necessary political process to bring about sustained peace.
As the May 26 AFRICOM statement makes clear, Russia’s strategy is fraught with the risk of new sanctions and its geopolitical maneuvers may not come for free.
Last week Libya witnessed one of the oldest tricks in the book: unilaterally declare a cease-fire at exactly the moment when your opponents are poised to gain territory.
The face of the Libyan Arab Spring, Mahmoud Jibril, felled by COVID-19
Last Sunday, the pandemic claimed the life of the most internationally prominent face of the Arab Spring in Libya. The tragic death of former Libyan Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril in a Cairo hospital, at just 68 years of age, is in fact a fitting metaphor for the many stillborn aspects of Libya’s attempted political rebirth.
Communities mobilized and immobilized as COVID-19 continues to spread in North Africa
Governments and citizens throughout North Africa are gearing up for a huge increase in coronavirus infections expected in late March, April, and May. Just next door, Italy and Spain are two of the five worst afflicted countries on the planet.
No part of the world will emerge unscathed from the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic of 2020. Just because China and Italy were the first to be severely hit, does not imply, that when all is said and done, that they will have sustained the brunt of the damage. North Africa is a region dependent on global commodities prices, tourism, and political and monetary support from Europe and the Gulf, where regime brittleness, youth unemployment, and Islamic radicalism all intersect.
Libyan oil production has collapsed to less than 100,000 bpd as Hifter has continued to amass forces for what some claim to be a final push into the nation’s capital and largest city.
After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hammered out a deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on March 5 to bring an end to the fighting in Idlib in northwestern Syria, he said he was hopeful that the two countries could extend their cooperation to Libya.
Understanding EU-MENA relations: Current and changing dynamics
This year could mark a turning point in the European Union’s relations with the countries of the MENA region. If the EU is to realize the objectives laid out in its 2016 global foreign and security policy strategy and become a major world power, it has to be more proactive and creative, especially in the Middle East.
The eastern Mediterranean has become an increasingly important focus for Turkey’s foreign and security policy, but the interlocking of new issues like energy politics and sovereignty rights with old problems like Cyprus has created significant challenges for Ankara.
MEI’s Jonathan Winer and Ross Harrison join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the conflict in Libya and how it fits into the broader context of civil wars in the Middle East.
