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A defense treaty is not how Biden should fix the Saudi relationship
  • تعليق
  • A defense treaty is not how Biden should fix the Saudi relationship

    The United States has likely reached a crossroads in its relationship with Saudi Arabia. President Joe Biden can reconcile with Riyadh and use its influence to reshape the Middle East to Washington’s liking and stabilize the global energy markets. Or else the Saudis most probably will tie their fortunes much closer to China, thus complicating America’s top foreign-policy priority.

    August 1, 2023

    Normalizing Assad has made Syria’s problems even worse
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  • Normalizing Assad has made Syria’s problems even worse

    Three months ago, Saudi Arabia kick-started a concerted regional effort to reengage and normalize Syria’s regime within the Middle East and, Riyadh hoped, farther afield. On April 18, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian capital of Damascus. Just one month later, on May 19, the Arab League embraced one of the world’s most notorious war criminals for the first time since 2011.

    Effectiveness, not size, key to US involvement in Middle East
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  • Effectiveness, not size, key to US involvement in Middle East

    In the summer of 2016, I was honoured to be asked by former US national security advisor Stephen Hadley and former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to help design a wargame, or a simulated crisis, to test whether more or less US engagement in the Middle East would be more beneficial for US interests and regional security.

    The crisis revolved around a fictitious incident at sea between Saudi and Iranian naval forces. We postulated that several small attack craft belonging to the Iranians confronted a Saudi frigate in the Arabian Gulf southwest of the island of Abu Musa.

    July 31, 2023

    Russia, Ukraine, and the Reshuffling of the European Security Order
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  • Russia, Ukraine, and the Reshuffling of the European Security Order

    In a 1994 article for Foreign Affairs, former US national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski famously argued that “without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire.” His analysis is no less valid today.

    At the time, Brzezinski was arguing against the United States pressuring Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons. It seems reasonable to say that there would be no war in Ukraine today if the country had not done so under the terms of the flawed Budapest Memorandum.

    Turkey's role after the Black Sea grain deal collapse has become even more critical
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  • Turkey's role after the Black Sea grain deal collapse has become even more critical

    During the 500 days since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East avoided a catastrophic food crisis, thanks in part to the Black Sea grain initiative. Russia’s decision to cancel that agreement is raising fears that the return of supply shortages and skyrocketing wheat prices could quickly plunge the most vulnerable countries of the region into crisis.

    Climate Change Threatens Turkey’s Role as a Food Supplier to Europe and the Middle East
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  • Climate Change Threatens Turkey’s Role as a Food Supplier to Europe and the Middle East

    The persistence of high food inflation in Turkey belies a deeper problem. Turkish agrifood production cannot adequately cope with increasing water scarcity due to climate change. Challenging Turkey’s own food security, the growing crisis also threatens Turkey’s role as a food supplier to Europe and the Middle East. Regional food supply chain breakdowns due to a decline in Turkish production would create a debilitating economic impact on both regions.

    5 ways the US, Europe can push for Israel-Arab environmental cooperation – opinion
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  • 5 ways the US, Europe can push for Israel-Arab environmental cooperation – opinion

    Environmental challenges are creating new priorities for countries in the Middle East and the Mediterranean and increasing cross-border cooperation – including between Israel and Arab countries. Such cooperation can assist in tackling climate change through a regional and global lens, can foster regional stability, maintain and expand circles of peace and normalization, and increase prosperity and economic development. 

    July 20, 2023

    In North Africa, Startups and NGOs Drive Local Innovation. What Is Missing?
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  • In North Africa, Startups and NGOs Drive Local Innovation. What Is Missing?

    Innovation is often cited as the prerequisite for development, growth, and prosperity. New ways to improve on existing practices and approaches, curiosity, and the ability to carry that forward into new ideas, discoveries and inventions help economies thrive, populations develop, and lives prosper. In the North African context, innovation is charting an uneven course.  This human ability to improve, build, and innovate is at times fed by state institutions or hindered by them. 

    The state of innovation in North Africa 

    سورية التي أسست للخلاف بين قوات فاغنر والحكومة الروسية
    Photo by STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images
  • تعليق
  • سورية التي أسست للخلاف بين قوات فاغنر والحكومة الروسية

    لم يكن تمرد مجموعات فاغنر العسكرية على الحكومة الروسية ووزارة الدفاع وقادتها العسكريين مفاجئاً، خاصة في الفترة الأخيرة من الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية مع الظهور المستمر لزعيم تلك القوات يفغيني بريغوجين، الذي تكرر ظهوره خلال الأشهر الماضية منتفداً تارة ومهدداً تارةً أخرى للقادة العسكريين الروس، بسبب ما قال إنه نقص في الذخيرة والمعدات المقدمة لقواته على جبهات أوكرانية وخاصة باخموت، ما تسبب بمقتل العشرات من قواته على مدار الفترة الماضية.

    The Middle East’s Four Battlegrounds
    الصورة من تصوير كريس ماكغراث/Getty Images
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  • The Middle East’s Four Battlegrounds

    Paul Scharre’s book “Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence” straddles two lines of thought: the transformative impact of AI on power and warfare in the 21st century and the dangers AI presents to human freedoms, individual rights, and the meaning of truth and reality.

    July 11, 2023

    الخليج يتحول إلى اللون الأخضر
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  • الخليج يتحول إلى اللون الأخضر

    في السنوات القليلة الماضية، تغيرت التوقعات العالمية في مجال الطاقة. فقد أدى صعود السياسات الشعبوية وتزايد الشعور بضرورة اتخاذ إجراءات عاجلة بشأن تغير المناخ إلى إثارة جدل حول سياسات الطاقة في البلدان الغنية، مما أدى إلى ظهور مزيج مربك من السياسات الصناعية الجديدة. وجعلت جائحة كوفيد-19 من الصعب للغاية التنبؤ بأسعار الوقود وأنماط الاستهلاك، وأجبرت العديد من البلدان على مواجهة ارتباطاتها بسلاسل التوريد الهشة التي تشمل عدة دول وبالدول النفطية القديمة.