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Iraq is right where it doesn’t want to be
Mourners surround a car carrying the coffins of Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi paramilitary chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, killed in a US air strike, during their funeral procession in Kadhimiya, a Shiite pilgrimage district of Baghdad, on January 4, 2020.
  • Commentary
  • Iraq is right where it doesn’t want to be

    While yesterday’s vote in the Iraqi Council of Representatives on a decision to remove U.S. forces is not legally binding, it creates dynamics inside the U.S. and Iraq that make a U.S. decision to remove its forces all but inevitable.

    January 6, 2020

    Storms on the horizon for Turkey in 2020
     Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan makes a speech as he attends the Symposium on Urban Security at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, Turkey on January 02, 2020.
  • Commentary
  • Storms on the horizon for Turkey in 2020

    Erdogan may want to hold early elections in 2020 to mitigate the fallout of a worsening economy and deny the new parties enough time to organize.

    Big questions for Libya in 2020
    Thousands of people gather at Martyr's Square within a funeral ceremony held after an airstrike on a military school in the south of the Libyan capital of Tripoli by jets loyal to renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar, in Tripoli, Libya on January 05, 2020.
  • Commentary
  • Big questions for Libya in 2020

    Strong U.S. leadership could still make a difference to counter the threats arising from the ongoing proxy war, but the Trump White House appears mainly to have other things on its mind.

    The prospects for Syria in 2020 are grim
    An aerial view taken on December 8, 2019 shows the damage caused by reported Syrian regime and Russian air strikes the previous day in the town of Al-Bara in the south of Syria's Idlib province, that killed at least four civilans, including a child and wounding several others.
  • Commentary
  • The prospects for Syria in 2020 are grim

    Militarily, the most concerning issue remains the fate of Idlib, where at least three million people remain crammed in a killing-zone that encompasses just 3.5 percent of Syria’s territory

    Israel in 2020: Heading for yet another election
    Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem on January 5, 2020.
  • Commentary
  • Israel in 2020: Heading for yet another election

    Politically Netanyahu seems to be about as popular as before his long-awaited indictment, which portends another inconclusive election and a political system unable to break the deadlock.

    January 6, 2020

    Stalemate and violence in Israel-Palestine
    Palestinians wave national flags as they march in the streets of the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah, calling for the cessation of divisions between Fatah and Hamas and the unification of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, on January 12, 2019.
  • Commentary
  • Stalemate and violence in Israel-Palestine

    Holding long overdue elections for the Palestinian presidency and the legislative arm of the Palestinian Authority could be a step toward redressing the Fatah-Hamas conflict.

    January 6, 2020

    Algeria remains in crisis
    Algerian protesters take part in an anti-government demonstration in the capital Algiers on January 3, 2020.
  • Commentary
  • Algeria remains in crisis

    The relationship between President Tebboune and the army leadership will be a major factor influencing Algeria’s evolution.

    With Soleimani’s death, war is coming
    Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani (C) attends Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's meeting with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) in Tehran, Iran on September 18, 2016.
  • Commentary
  • With Soleimani’s death, war is coming

    The killing of Qassem Soleimani is one of the biggest developments in the Middle East in decades — it far eclipses the deaths of Osama bin Laden or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in terms of strategic significance and implications.

    Why now?
    US President Donald Trump makes a statement on Iran at the Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach Florida, on January 3, 2020.
  • Commentary
  • Why now?

    Just when we thought we had a good understanding of President Donald Trump’s Middle East policy — which boils down to “get out of the region and avoid another endless war there” — he pulls off something dramatic like this.

    January 3, 2020

    A new escalation in the US-Iran crisis
    People gather to stage a protest against the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani by a US air strike in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, after Friday prayer in Tehran, Iran on January 3, 2020.
  • Commentary
  • A new escalation in the US-Iran crisis

    We must keep in mind that Iran exercises what Barack Obama liked to call “strategic patience.” They pursue strategies and tactics that serve their interests, not emotions. Their interests remain to get Trump to ease off on crippling economic sanctions; to maintain or increase their influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon; and to maintain regime security at home. The death of a senior military officer of theirs is significant but doesn’t change their institutional relations, their interests, or their overall strategy. 

    January 3, 2020