Trying to save Russia from humiliation is not the right way to end the war in Ukraine
It is time for Western leaders to deal with Russia as it is and not as they want it to be. There is no room for them to back down now, as it will simply increase Putin’s appetite. The cost of providing a face-saving exit to Putin is much higher than that of his ultimate humiliation on the battlefield.
Nathenael Gemechu moderates a conversation with Michael Woldemariam and Guled Ahmed on Ethiopia in the first installment of a two-part series on the Horn of Africa. Woldemariam and Ahmed discuss the ongoing Tigrayan conflict that includes Ethiopia and Eritrea and the influence of external players.
The impact of the war in Ukraine on Russian-Turkish relations and Black Sea security: Three potential scenarios
As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, where things go from here is far from certain, but it is worth considering the range of possibilities. These three scenarios highlight the potential challenges and opportunities that Putin, Erdoğan, and, to a lesser degree, Zelenskyy may face depending on how the conflict plays out, as well as what is at stake for other countries in the Black Sea region.
Asia is undergoing a world-historical geopolitical transformation. The rise of the Indo-Pacific as a coherent geoeconomic and geopolitical system coincides with the rise of the “Indo-Abrahamic,” an emerging transregional order connecting India to West Asia and the eastern Mediterranean. Until now, the geographic vastness of Asia and the legacy of “divide-and-conquer” colonialism have kept the continent politically and economically fragmented. By reshaping their bilateral relations, Cairo and New Delhi can seize the opportunity to link the Indo-Abrahamic with the Indo-Pacific, thus realizing this envisioned West Asian system.
Higher oil prices are giving Algeria’s regime breathing room
As Russia’s war on Ukraine keeps oil and gas prices high, Algeria’s regime is replenishing its financial reserves after years of depleting them. This renewed budgetary space will make it easier for the government to deal with any hint of popular discontent. But rather than going back to splurging on new salary increases or other forms of accelerated rent distribution as it has done in the past, the regime seems to be adopting a more cautious approach this time around.
A false alarm or a wake-up call for Israel’s fragile coalition?
On May 19, Ghaida Rinawi Zoabi, one of Meretz’s two Arab Knesset members, announced she was leaving the governing coalition and her party. On May 22, however, it was announced that she had rejoined both. What happened and what does it tell us about the state of Israel’s fragile coalition government?
Protecting Gulf waters through regional cooperation
In collaboration with regional and international experts and organizations, the Middle East Institute is implementing a program aimed at promoting regional approaches to solve climactic and anthropogenic challenges to the waters of the Gulf.
The Palestinian Authority’s economic “disengagement” looks a lot like the status quo
Palestinian Authority (PA) officials repeatedly deny acquiescing to the economic peace model with Israel, but such rhetoric is not reflected in their actions. In recent years integration between the Palestinian and Israeli economies has only deepened.
In recent months, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been on a charm offensive. But that spring in Turkey’s diplomacy may now be reverting to winter as Ankara has blocked Swedish and Finnish accession to NATO even as a key arms deal is pending with Washington and U.S. relations with Greece are at a high.
“Half of us were left behind while one of our colleagues back home was shot dead”
There are certain events that are so impactful that you remember exactly where you were and what you were doing when you heard about them. The killing of Shireen Abu Akleh, the veteran Al Jazeera journalist, last Wednesday in the occupied West Bank was for me just such an event — both because of who she was and what I was doing at the time.
Will France's MENA policy change in Macron's second term?
When Emmanuel Macron was elected president five years ago, many analysts wondered how it might affect France’s policy toward the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). At the time, France found itself at a crossroads, having to contend with the shift in U.S. policy toward the region during the presidency of Donald Trump, growing dissension within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), increasingly deteriorating relations with Iran, tensions with Turkey after the failed 2016 coup, and ongoing bloodshed in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, all while conducting a military campaign against ISIS. Following Macron’s recent reelection to a second term, the key question now is whether he will maintain or change his current policy toward the region.
Russia is violating the spirit of Montreux by using civilian ships for war
On Feb. 28, Turkey triggered the Montreux Convention, not used since World War II, and closed the Turkish Straits to military ships. This one move interrupted Russia’s maritime logistical supply line to Syria, interfered with its ability to rotate naval assets in the Mediterranean, and prevented Moscow from bringing additional warships to the Black Sea. Russia can no longer supply its Syria operation or deliver defense exports to its customers using navy ships. However, close observation of traffic through the Turkish Straits reveals that Russia is continuing its naval operations in the Mediterranean and Black seas.
Could Ukraine Offer a Template for Better US-Gulf Security Relations?
Relations between Washington and some of its traditional Gulf Arab partners, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are at their lowest point in history, which is why the Biden administration on Monday sent a high-level delegation to Abu Dhabi: specifically to pay respects upon the death of former UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan and to congratulate his successor, Mohamed bin Zayed, but more generally to try to heal those ties.
