Research & Commentary Results

A little over a year ago, the icy relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia underwent a remarkable thaw. But beneath this détente, a new front emerged in their longstanding rivalry — one rooted not in geopolitics or religious ideologies but in the realm of soft power and societal aspirations.

Kuwait’s emir, Sheikh Mishal Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah, took his next step in governance without a parliament in place on June 1, when he appointed Sheikh Sabah Khalid Al Sabah as crown prince. Although the timing of the announcement suspending portions of the constitution and dissolving the parliament caught most observers off guard, the emir’s decision was not surprising.

Around two-thirds of the population in the Middle East and North Africa lives in urban settlements and the region’s population is projected to double by 2050, exposing a growing number of people to intensifying natural and climate hazards. As a result, cities will need to take additional steps to boost climate resilience and advance decarbonization efforts, including through climate-informed urban planning measures like compact, transit-oriented development, urban greening initiatives, and a focus on green buildings. With this in mind, regional governments have recently adopted the concept of “smart cities,” aiming to utilize technology and sustainable practices to address the challenges of urbanization and climate change.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

From extreme heat and drought to dust storms and rising sea levels, the Kingdom of Bahrain is facing the growing impact of climate change, with projections indicating conditions will only get worse in the future. Manama’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change directly intersects with its broader societal and governance issues, necessitating comprehensive climate-resilience strategies to address these interconnected challenges.

Intense flooding across the Arabian Peninsula caused by a storm in mid-April sparked speculation about the role cloud seeding might have played in the precipitation event, giving rise to conspiracy theories on social media and warnings trumpeting the hazards of human intervention into natural processes. Cloud seeding is not the only climate change-adaptive strategy to have been targeted in this way, and the effort being expended to combat such disinformation (though nascent) is growing.

تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.

On Feb. 25, 2024, Qatar announced plans to increase its LNG production capacity by a further 16 million tons per annum (mtpa) in 2029-30, bringing the total to 142 mtpa. This would be the third such large-scale expansion of its LNG production within the next six years, but there’s one wrinkle: These new production volumes are set to come online at a time of significant oversupply in the LNG market. What accounts for Qatar’s decision?

The US is changing its approach to dealing with China’s technology statecraft in the Middle East. The recent Microsoft-G42 deal offers a new model for technology competition that helps to secure American technologies while accommodating its partners’ aspirations.

في الأشهر الأخيرة، أصبحت أوضاع إسرائيل في البحر الأحمر أكثر صعوبة على الصعيد الأمني والاقتصادي والدبلوماسي. لكن البلاد في وضع أفضل لمواجهة هذه التحديات والتهديدات من خلال الاستفادة من الشراكات الإقليمية الاستراتيجية التي طورتها على مدى السنوات القليلة الماضية.

After Hamas’s unprecedented attack against Israel on Oct. 7, the siren song of Saudi-Israeli normalization risks wrecking the US-Saudi relationship against the rocks of stubborn geopolitical realities. An interim less-for-less approach in US-Saudi negotiations that doesn’t immediately require Senate approval nor is beholden to a much less certain Israeli-Palestinian peace process could set the stage for an even more consequential “mega deal” down the line.

It was no surprise to see Pakistan’s new prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, choose Saudi Arabia as the destination of his first official visit. What was more surprising, however, was the joint announcement that emerged from the trip, which called on Pakistan and India to resolve their outstanding disputes, especially the Jammu and Kashmir problem. There are several factors that have impelled Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to take on the tricky task of mediating the protracted rivalry between the two key South Asian states.

شهد شهر أبريل سلسلة من التصعيدات غير المسبوقة في الصراع الإيراني-الإسرائيلي الذي طال أمده، حيث شن كلا البلدين هجمات صاروخية وطائرات مسيرة على أراضي بعضهما البعض لأول مرة في التاريخ.

في أعقاب هذه الضربات، ماذا سيكون تأثيرها على الأمن الإقليمي والبيئة السياسية في المستقبل، وما هو المطلوب لتثبيت قواعد اللعبة الجديدة، وكيف يمكن للدبلوماسية الأمريكية أن تساعد في تسهيل هذه العملية؟ طلب معهد الشرق الأوسط (MEI) من خبرائه إبداء آرائهم في هذا الشأن.

Yemen’s eastern governorate of Hadramawt has long had a distinct regional identity and recent steps, including the signing of a Hadrami Honor Charter and the formation of the Hadramawt National Council (HNC), have underscored Hadramis’ aspirations for greater empowerment and autonomy at a time of growing competition and contestation, both locally and regionally.

A version of this article was originally published on the Substack “Thinking Middle East.”