Research & Commentary Results

The Middle East teeters on the precipice of a substantial escalation, threatening to more fully draw in Lebanon, Iran, and perhaps other countries. What happens in the coming days, along with the decisions made by adversaries and allies alike, will determine if that happens.

Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack touched off a destructive war with Israel and a limited but fierce regional conflagration between Israel and the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” with Lebanese Hezbollah at the forefront. The ongoing conflict has been multi-fronted, multi-faceted, dynamic, and already highly consequential. While a clear bottom line remains elusive, exploring the war’s primary origins and evolution offers useful indicators.

As the Middle East becomes more autonomous and empowered domestically, the leaders in the region might consider more synergetic relations with each other and prepare national long-term plans that provide a balanced and integrated approach to social, technological, environmental, economic, and political development and progress.

Digital transformation will play a key role in shaping relations between Europe and the MENA region, but despite these high-level announcements, EU strategy and programming on the ground would need to expand to meet the region’s requirements and serve the EU’s strategic interests.

لطالما كانت أفغانستان ساحة للمنافسات بالوكالة بين القوى الإقليمية، التي اتبعت سياسات متباينة تجاه أفغانستان على مدى العقود الماضية من الاحتلال الأجنبي، وتقوم بذلك مرة أخرى الآن في ظل سيطرة طالبان المتجددة على البلاد.

On July 21, 2024, Iraq inaugurated a new power line connecting Turkey and Iraq to handle Turkish electricity imports. Iraq is operationalizing this new power line with the goal of ensuring a more stable energy future, reshaping its geopolitical relationships, and reducing its reliance on Iran.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), once heralded as a “game-changer,” has almost disappeared from the spotlight in recent years. The project has faced slow implementation, unpaid loans, corruption, and a dire security situation. How is China responding to Pakistan’s poor handling of CPEC, its perpetual financial troubles, and its periodic demands on China to bail it out?

As speculation continues about a possible Turkish-Syrian normalization, what might such a process mean for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a close US ally? In a new piece for MEI, Amer al-Ahmed lays out three possible scenarios for the future of the SDF amid normalization.

Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran are explosive events for the region. Coming within 12 hours of each other, they were also an earthquake within the “Axis of Resistance” — but not one likely to encourage de-escalation. Far from it.

كيف عزل التفتت الاقتصادي المنطقة عن الحرب في غزة

Although Russia and China are in regular dialogue with the Houthis, the motivations that undergird the engagements of both countries differ markedly. The Houthis regard both Russia and China as partners against American unilateralism but have a warmer relationship with Moscow.

The extensive coverage and analysis of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent visit to the United States mostly focused on optics and domestic politics, rather than on policy. Nevertheless, policy issues were very much present throughout the course of the visit, with Biden and his team trying to push for a hostage and cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas.

In reaction to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Gaza war, the Biden administration articulated six main objectives. After nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has repeatedly threatened to spill out into neighboring theaters, the Biden administration’s success toward achieving these goals has mostly declined, not for a lack of effort but rather a reflection of considerable challenges in the environment and major shortcomings in policy conceptualization and implementation.

The recent Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv, which struck an Israeli apartment building near the Embassy of the United States, killing at least one person, should surprise no one. And the fact Israel’s state-of-the-art air defense could not prevent it will probably embolden future attempts.

The Houthis’ strategy of escalation has the potential to upset the fragile balance of power in the Middle East and underlines the ability of smaller actors to influence larger geopolitical outcomes through calculated risks and alliances.