يقدم هذا التقرير تقييماً مؤقتاً لاستراتيجية إدارة بايدن الشاملة تجاه الشرق الأوسط، ويبحث الفرص والمخاطر الاستراتيجية للسياسة الأمريكية في المنطقة بشكل عام.
Last week saw a flurry of diplomatic activity between Baghdad and Ankara. The top priorities in the talks were oil exports, the presence of the PKK in Iraq, and Iraq’s water crisis. The outcomes have been unimpressive, but there is an opportunity for Iraq to shake things up and improve its bargaining position, at least on the oil export issue, possibly more.
Efforts to reform the Iraqi Kurdish security forces known as the Peshmerga are at serious risk of failing. Tensions between the ruling parties of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region are not new, but the working relationship between the leaders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has collapsed over the past year. As a result, officials within the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs are no longer capable of preventing the politics of partisan self-interest from consuming the reform project. The prospects for the depoliticization and unification of the Peshmerga have rarely seemed more remote.
There are currently over 5.34 million Syrian refugees dispersed in camps, collective shelters, and poor neighborhoods across Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt. Many make desperate attempts to find refuge in Europe. Instead of adopting repressive measures and discriminating against these individuals, the U.S. and European countries should work with regional partners and non-governmental organizations to limit the danger to refugees and IDPs.
Although it has fallen off the international news cycle, Baghdad is booming, high on rising oil prices and full, once again, of neo-Abbasid, petroleum-fueled aspirations. Thanks to new anti-money laundering legislation, funds are being funneled not only into hotels and real estate but also into new cultural enterprises. So what does culture in Iraq look like in 2023?
Three years on from the Beirut port blast, Hezbollah, with the support of Lebanon’s political elite, has managed to obstruct and even quash the domestic judicial process for holding those responsible for the explosion accountable and delivering justice to both victims and a battered nation. The international community must uphold its responsibility toward the Lebanese people by enabling a U.N. fact-finding mission to investigate the blast, sanctioning those responsible for obstructing justice, and making ending impunity the centerpiece of international mediation on the Lebanese crisis.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
For resource-rich countries such as Gulf oil and natural gas producers, sovereign wealth funds have emerged as promising tools to save for future generations, mitigate the effects of outsized economic shocks, and/or be deployed as reserve investment and strategic development funds to spend on human, natural, social, and physical capital.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
From the past century until today, the U.S. has cast a long shadow in the Middle East region and relations have gone through many highs and lows. It is important to be aware of this trajectory to better understand the relationship today; and perhaps there are lessons to inform the future of the relationship in the coming century.
Iraq has long had a troubled history with its ethno-religious minorities, one full of oppression and violence. This was true under the Ba’athist regime and continued after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, reaching a nadir with the rise of the Islamic State terrorist group. Although Iraq is now enjoying its most stable period in the past two decades, it is also a case study of the pernicious effects of structural violence, especially toward the more marginalized and vulnerable segments of society.
Gender parity in the Middle East is still many decades away, but it will largely determine the future of economic, social, cultural, and political development in the region.
Jean-Yves Le Drian, French President Emmanuel Macron’s envoy to Lebanon, made a preliminary diplomatic visit to Beirut last week. Le Drian’s appointment marks a potential though uncertain opening to consolidate international support for Lebanon to facilitate an end to the political gridlock and leadership vacuum. A short but timely boost in robust diplomacy on the part of Washington, strengthened by clear coordination with Paris and regional partners, can play a decisive role in preventing the unraveling of another failed authoritarian state that could further destabilize the region and force even more costly engagement in the future.
Last week’s collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River in Ukraine is one of the largest environmental disaster the Black Sea region and Europe has faced in decades. Its far-reaching environmental, economic, and humanitarian consequences will affect not just Ukraine and the Black Sea region, but also the Middle East and Africa.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.