Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
U.S. military posture is a perfect example of the interdependence between defense strategy and foreign policy. Defense professionals in the Pentagon can come up with the best ideas for where and how the United States should station its troops and military assets overseas, but without the necessary U.S. diplomacy to secure security agreements or understandings with global allies and partners, those concepts will not be implementable.
In recent years, numerous analyses have been published on the increasing influence of the IRGC within the Iranian regime. Nevertheless, the rise in the power of the military should not overshadow the fact that in the Islamic Republic, not only the paramount position of supreme leader, but also many other key roles are held exclusively by clerics. Moreover, many of these clerics, including the highest-ranking ones, must be appointed by the supreme leader. This system was designed to ensure the loyalty of key officials, but over time has given rise to growing concerns over the reliability of the next generation of clerics and the transfer of power.
As the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) work to transform from hydrocarbons-driven to data-driven economies, they will need to make significant and well-planned invest-ments in digital infrastructure, particularly when it comes to the complex issue of data govern-ance. They must take the lead in establishing regulatory and legal frameworks aligned with international standards in terms of data gathering, processing, and storing procedures. This report highlights the existing laws and regulations that govern data protection in the GCC while addressing their potential and limitations, along with the similarities and differences between the GCC’s legislative frameworks and the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation, and the impact of the GCC’s current data protection laws on individuals, the private sector, regulators, and governments.
The 4.8 million residents of the occupied Palestinian territories live in two simultaneous and vastly different realities. In the physical world, Palestinians are captives, crammed into Gaza or West Bank enclaves and blockaded by Israeli military checkpoints. But on the internet, the checkpoints disappear.
Bilal Saab, senior fellow and founding director of MEI’s Defense & Security Program, discusses the recently completed Defense Department Global Posture Review (GPR), his thoughts on the review and process, and how it will impact the U.S. strategy in the Middle East.
Ahead of the seventh round of the Iran nuclear negotiations that ended on Dec. 3 in Vienna, many observers interpreted Ebrahim Raisi’s election to the presidency and his recent rhetoric as representing a distinct shift in Iran’s nuclear strategy. Indeed, in November, Raisi’s government’s official newspaper Iran explained that Tehran’s strategy in Vienna has changed, and that it has embraced a new approach looking to compel the West to agree with Iran’s terms for a “good deal.” Yet there is more continuity than change in Iranian decision-making on the nuclear file than meets the eye, and Raisi’s election by itself has not represented a fundamental rearrangement.
Following the resignation of the finance minister and his replacement by a loyalist on Dec. 2, the Turkish lira continued its steady decline against the dollar, bringing its losses for the year to nearly 50%. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s early cuts to the policy rate since September have resulted in an exodus of foreign capital and a rush in demand for foreign exchange among domestic investors.
The UAE will celebrate the 50th anniversary of the qiyam al-dawla (establishment of the state) and qiyam al-ittihad (establishment of the federation of seven emirates) on Dec. 2. Since 1971, the Emirati political elite has addressed the complex responsibilities of building a functional bureaucratic apparatus while shaping the nation’s identity. An oil-based model informed this state-building process and the expectations of citizens for decades, but the country now faces a more complex environment. New challenges such as the growing youth population, the drive toward sustainability, and changing patterns within the global economy affect the current Emirati political agenda; however, the UAE leadership must balance the urgent search for innovative strategies with Emirati haweeya al-watani (national identity) and turath (heritage).
While oil prices have rebounded before soaring since the depths of collapse in the spring of 2020 — with Brent crude prices skyrocketing from $19 per barrel in April 2020 to a three-year high of $86 per barrel in October 2021 — the prospects for a sustained high oil price for Gulf producers is unlikely.
While the international community has adopted a “wait-and-see” attitude toward the Afghan Taliban, Tajikistan has taken a sharply critical view. Rhetoric between Tajikistan and the Taliban is increasingly bitter, a symptom of a broader problem in their bilateral ties. Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon has condemned the Taliban regime in Kabul for failing to form an inclusive government and for violating human rights in the Panjshir Valley. The Taliban have responded by warning Tajikistan not to interfere in Afghanistan’s internal affairs.
It is with heavy hearts that we in the MEI family mourn the sudden passing of Dr. James McGann, leader and visionary creator of the University of Pennsylvania’s Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program.
If the Biden administration makes concessions to appease the Islamic Republic of Iran as part of the recently resumed Vienna nuclear talks, it will be a historic mistake. The Islamic Republic is facing a deep legitimacy crisis of its own making, as a series of disastrous decisions have hardened the people’s views against the regime. These days, anyone who is seen to be throwing the Islamic Republic a lifeline will be wildly unpopular among Iranians.
Jordan is facing an existential challenge and it has nothing to do with the deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the war in neighboring Syria, or the threat of militant Islamists. The challenge is climate change, which is responsible for poor rainy seasons over the past few years. The situation has become so bad that in the past few weeks the government admitted that six of the kingdom’s 14 active dams have now completely dried up, exacerbating endemic shortages of water used for drinking, irrigation, and industry.
مدير برنامج إيران وكبير باحثين في مبادرة Frontier Europe