Putting Lebanon back on the path of statehood and economic recovery is not only an urgent necessity for the Lebanese but also a step toward building a more peaceful and prosperous Middle East
Last week, as I made my way to Beirut airport, I drove through bombed out streets in an empty city. The Lebanese national airline still bravely flew in and out, its planes weaving their way between Israeli airstrikes. I boarded my flight to attend a conference, hoping we would make it out safely. I left behind a population that had paid a very heavy price for 13 months of war between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Israel: thousands of dead and injured, thousands of homes and businesses destroyed, and over 1.2 million displaced.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
There is no quick path to limiting or reducing Iranian influence in Iraq. Tehran will react fiercely to American efforts to destroy the militias and zero-out its influence, and it would have multiple avenues to escalate through the porous 900-mile-long border between the two countries. Moreover, domestic Iraqi reaction, especially among elements of the Shi’a population, would be reticent at best and hostile at worst to intensified American military actions. Nor should it be an American goal to stoke a civil war among Iraq’s Shi’a that would give Iran new access points.
The Persian Gulf-Black Sea International Transport and Transit Corridor, which Tehran proposed eight years ago, remains relevant today in the context of strategic competition, as it offers Iran and participating countries an alternative trade route that bypasses traditional Western-dominated shipping lanes, potentially reshaping regional economic dynamics and geopolitical influence.
As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, the main question in Tehran is not so much what the incoming American president will do about Iran. Rather, it is about whether Tehran should negotiate with him.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
The Middle East has experienced an extraordinarily tumultuous year, as the ripples from Hamas’ assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, continue to fuel hostilities in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the waters of the Gulf. Amid all of this, Syria has received very little attention, despite its central role in Iran’s regional agenda. Now the Biden administration is reportedly “hopeful” that Bashar al-Assad will soon permanently block Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah in Lebanon and is postured to reward Damascus for doing so. At best, such calculations should be described as optimistic; at worst, fanciful.
وسط كارثة الحرب المستمرة في لبنان، يصر المشهد الثقافي في البلاد على العمل رغم الصعوبات للحفاظ على تراثه وفنه. ومن بين العديد من المشاريع التي تصر على المضي قدماً متحف بيروت للفنون (BeMA)، وهو متحف طال انتظاره وتتمثل مهمته في الحفاظ على تراث البلاد وثقافتها من خلال الفن الحديث والمعاصر.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
Under past reformist presidents, Iran repeatedly tried to build a grand bargain deal with the United States, entailing compromises over its nuclear program in return for negotiating spheres of influence across the Middle East. This September, speaking on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York, the current reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed that he was open to direct talks with Washington to end hostilities.
The multiple wars that have erupted since Oct. 7, 2023, have already changed the strategic landscape in the Middle East — and more change is likely to follow.
it is possible to extrapolate how the incoming second Trump administration may respond to the complex situation in the Middle East by examining the president-elect’s record during his first term, what he has said since, as well as public statements of his running-mate, Sen. J. D. Vance. Two main issues are likely to dominate Donald Trump’s regional agenda when he comes to power: Iran and Israeli-Palestinian affairs.
تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.
Israel’s escalation of its military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon has severely disrupted the cross-border flow of goods into Syria that have long served as a critical lifeline for Damascus. These interruptions have worsened existing shortages, triggering sharp increases in the prices of essential commodities for Syrian who were already struggling economically.