Research & Commentary Results

Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack touched off a destructive war with Israel and a limited but fierce regional conflagration between Israel and the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” with Lebanese Hezbollah at the forefront. The ongoing conflict has been multi-fronted, multi-faceted, dynamic, and already highly consequential. While a clear bottom line remains elusive, exploring the war’s primary origins and evolution offers useful indicators.

On this week’s episode, Director of MEI’s Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism Programs Charles Lister speaks with MEI Editor-in-Chief Alistair Taylor on the resurgence of the Islamic State, or ISIS, in Syria and Iraq. This episode is the first in a several-part series looking at where the terrorist group stands today and its international footprint 10 years on from the founding of the 87-country Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. 

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As the Middle East becomes more autonomous and empowered domestically, the leaders in the region might consider more synergetic relations with each other and prepare national long-term plans that provide a balanced and integrated approach to social, technological, environmental, economic, and political development and progress.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

Masoud Pezeshkian assumed office as Iran’s president during a period of crisis. The evening after his inauguration, Israel killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who cheered on the Oct. 7 massacre in Israel, in a Tehran guesthouse. Whereas some Western media outlets hailed Pezeshkian’s arrival by dubbing him as a “liberalizer” whose administration foreign actors are trying to spoil, his choices for cabinet and executive positions reflect the limitations of the power of the presidency.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

لطالما كانت أفغانستان ساحة للمنافسات بالوكالة بين القوى الإقليمية، التي اتبعت سياسات متباينة تجاه أفغانستان على مدى العقود الماضية من الاحتلال الأجنبي، وتقوم بذلك مرة أخرى الآن في ظل سيطرة طالبان المتجددة على البلاد.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea through the Gulf of Aden, is a crucial chokepoint for global maritime commerce. Despite the strait’s importance, the waters around it have long been plied by smugglers of weapons and other illicit goods. Djibouti today is an important player in trade in the Horn of Africa region, but it also serves as a conduit for Chinese influence, has been linked to malign actors like Iran and the Houthis, and has faced allegations of involvement in various grey and black market activities, including money laundering, illicit finance, oil smuggling, and weapons trafficking.

On July 21, 2024, Iraq inaugurated a new power line connecting Turkey and Iraq to handle Turkish electricity imports. Iraq is operationalizing this new power line with the goal of ensuring a more stable energy future, reshaping its geopolitical relationships, and reducing its reliance on Iran.

After 10 months of Israel’s war on Gaza, the US administration has lost control over its ally and the fear of its opponents. As a result, Washington has only limited, if any, impact on the cost-benefit escalation calculus of the fighting sides. The Middle East is today the closest it has ever been to an all-out multi-front regional war.

The success of Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 marked the first time in modern history that a secular regime in the Middle East was toppled in favor of a theocratic, Islamist order. Over the following decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s primary objective has been to become a regional hegemon. In pursuit of this goal, Iran’s Shi’a clerical leadership has been willing to adopt a remarkably pragmatic approach, allowing it to often diverge from its religious dogma.

Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran are explosive events for the region. Coming within 12 hours of each other, they were also an earthquake within the “Axis of Resistance” — but not one likely to encourage de-escalation. Far from it.

In a new special briefing, scholars from across MEI weigh in with their thoughts on the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and the potential regional impact.

This week’s episode looks at the dramatic regional developments of the past 24 hours, including the Israeli strike on a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut and the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The strikes mark a significant escalation, and are expected to provoke retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah that could potentially ignite a wider regional conflict.

In reaction to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Gaza war, the Biden administration articulated six main objectives. After nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has repeatedly threatened to spill out into neighboring theaters, the Biden administration’s success toward achieving these goals has mostly declined, not for a lack of effort but rather a reflection of considerable challenges in the environment and major shortcomings in policy conceptualization and implementation.