The complex web of interdependence and threat balancing that prevents war between Iran and Azerbaijan
Relations between Tehran and Baku have long had their ups and downs, but a recent series of events in late March have once again brought tensions to a boil. However, despite the mutual threat perceptions, the recurring tensions between the two countries have not gotten out of control and led to military conflict. In fact, over the past three decades, relations between Tehran and Baku have consistently followed a cycle of escalating and de-escalating tensions.
The Israeli protests: What’s happened and what’s likely to come
Monday, March 27 was supposed to be a red-letter day for the new far-right Israeli coalition government, when it planned to slide through the Knesset the central provision of its “judicial overhaul” bill, comfortably ahead of the Passover recess beginning on April 2. Instead, it ended up being one of the most extraordinary days in Israeli history. Spurred by the “firing” of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the evening before, the demonstrations against the overhaul, which had been building in intensity for over two months, became overwhelming.
Israel and Azerbaijan: Trusted friends and reliable partners
Israeli-Azerbaijani relations are based on two main pillars: patient and cordial political relations as well as defense cooperation and arms sales. While the former reached a more intensive level this year, with the opening of an Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv in late March, the latter pillar of the relationship was well developed long before, as Israel became Azerbaijan’s largest weapons supplier.
French President Emmanuel Macron is taking Ursula von der Leyen with him on his trip to China next week. Von der Leyen is president of the European Commission and, until now, one of the European Union’s (EU) staunchest supporters of Ukraine. The two are scheduled to arrive in Beijing on April 4. While Macron’s visit had been announced some time ago, von der Leyen’s recent decision to join gives the trip a pan-European stamp of approval. But for what?
If the US wants to make its mark on the future of Israeli democracy, it’s time it moved from words to deeds
As Israel’s hardline coalition government is ramming through legislation that would radically alter the country’s political character and system of government, alarm bells are finally ringing in Washington. Even President Joe Biden has finally picked up the phone and expressed his concern to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about his anti-democratic agenda. The growing American apprehension, however, has yet to be translated into meaningful policy action.
Russia’s occupation strategy — the biggest long-term threat to Ukraine’s stability
Repeatedly throughout Russia’s history, its authorities have employed unlawful occupations, annexations, deportations, filtration, and ethnic dilution through an influx of Russian settlers to control and reshape the Eurasian map in favor of Russian expansionism. The de-occupation and reintegration of the Russian-controlled territories of Ukraine can be the only guarantee of durable peace in the heart of Europe.
Surge in West Bank violence further undercuts Abbas’s precarious leadership
In addition to the terrible human and material toll, among the many casualties of the ongoing Israeli offensive in the West Bank is Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas’s leadership. Without outside intervention, Israel’s violent military crackdown is likely to fuel more violence while further undercutting Abbas’s already embattled leadership and whatever may be left of the PA’s domestic credibility.
The challenge of defending NATO’s Black Sea borderland: The view from Bucharest
While the U.S. and its NATO allies work on developing a Black Sea strategy, Washington should continue to cooperation with the Romanian Armed Forces, encourage the Romanians to build up their capabilities, and support the Romanian military’s officer corps development. In a multipolar world, solutions will need to be first and foremost regional — and in the Black Sea region, the Romanian Naval and Special Forces are a solid anchor for European stability.
Aqaba agreement overshadowed by spiking violence in the West Bank
It was described as a “significant breakthrough” by a Jordanian official, while Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said the agreement would ‘’de-escalate violence” if implemented, but just as the details of the one-day security meeting in Aqaba, on Feb. 26, were being announced, it became apparent once more that a rare attempt to bring Israeli and Palestinian officials together, in a bid to contain a spike in violence that was quickly getting out of control, was ill-fated.
Defending submarine cables in the Black Sea: A challenge for NATO and the region
As fighting rages on in Ukraine, crucial submarine communication cables in the Black Sea could be in danger of disruption. Not only have risks of accidents grown with the increase in regional naval activity, but deliberate attacks on these cables follow the Kremlin’s modus operandi of targeting critical infrastructure below the threshold of war. Black Sea states need to more resolutely protect submarine cables, either within the format of NATO or novel regional frameworks.
The German "Zeitenwende" still goes unnoticed in Israel
Although Germany and Israel maintain a close partnership, the German “Zeitenwende” has not yet been perceived there. Dr. Nimrod Goren outlines a German-Israeli partnership oriented towards democracy and peace.
The traditional 20th-century pillars of U.S.-Saudi bilateral relations are energy and security — a reflection of Cold War dynamics and the critical role that Saudi Arabia plays in the global economy as an energy superpower. Now, in 2023, Riyadh and Washington should think beyond energy to explore opportunities and address critical challenges in areas such as tech and cyber, which could ultimately cement their strategic relations for the 21st century.
Russia's Influence in MENA After a Year of War in Ukraine
MEI Managing Editor Matthew Czekaj speaks with scholars Iulia-Sabina Joja, Alex Vatanka, Yörük Işık, Charles Lister, and Roger Kangas on Russia’s current standing in the Middle East a year since re-invading Ukraine.
How has Russian aggression in Ukraine redrawn Moscow’s relationships in the MENA region? And as the Middle East increasingly becomes a key area of global great power competition, is Russia still a meaningful player there, politically, economically, militarily, and diplomatically?
