Iran’s growing influence in the Black Sea region: Consequences and Western responses
Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has provided several strategic opportunities for Iran to increase its foothold in the Greater Black Sea Region. A closer analysis of Iran’s deepening footprint there is necessary to inform how the next administration in Washington and the new European Commission can strengthen and better coordinate their policy responses.
In only six days, a broad coalition of advancing opposition forces coordinated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has captured all of Idlib province, almost all of Aleppo province, and a sizeable stretch of northern Hama — a humiliating defeat for Bashar al-Assad and illustrative of the fragility of regime rule in Syria.
US success in Iraq means being a more reliable partner than Iran
There is no quick path to limiting or reducing Iranian influence in Iraq. Tehran will react fiercely to American efforts to destroy the militias and zero-out its influence, and it would have multiple avenues to escalate through the porous 900-mile-long border between the two countries. Moreover, domestic Iraqi reaction, especially among elements of the Shi’a population, would be reticent at best and hostile at worst to intensified American military actions. Nor should it be an American goal to stoke a civil war among Iraq’s Shi’a that would give Iran new access points.
Persian Gulf-Black Sea corridor: A new era for Iran-Europe trade or just another risk?
The Persian Gulf-Black Sea International Transport and Transit Corridor, which Tehran proposed eight years ago, remains relevant today in the context of strategic competition, as it offers Iran and participating countries an alternative trade route that bypasses traditional Western-dominated shipping lanes, potentially reshaping regional economic dynamics and geopolitical influence.
As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, the main question in Tehran is not so much what the incoming American president will do about Iran. Rather, it is about whether Tehran should negotiate with him.
How might US-Israeli relations evolve under the Trump administration?
MEI Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs Nimrod Goren and Associate Research Professor Ilai Saltzman discuss potential shifts in US policy, the outlook for Israeli politics in 2025, and the challenges to advancing peace on the Israeli-Palestinian front. Tune in for expert insights on what lies ahead.
Reshaping the public discourse is key to restoring support for Israeli-Palestinian peace
Supporters of peace, both local civil society actors and international partners, need to make a sustained effort to promote conflict resolution by shifting the public discourse of traditional and new media outlets, especially in Israel.
The Middle East has experienced an extraordinarily tumultuous year, as the ripples from Hamas’ assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, continue to fuel hostilities in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the waters of the Gulf. Amid all of this, Syria has received very little attention, despite its central role in Iran’s regional agenda. Now the Biden administration is reportedly “hopeful” that Bashar al-Assad will soon permanently block Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah in Lebanon and is postured to reward Damascus for doing so. At best, such calculations should be described as optimistic; at worst, fanciful.
Tehran’s calculations to avoid all-out war with Israel and the US
Under past reformist presidents, Iran repeatedly tried to build a grand bargain deal with the United States, entailing compromises over its nuclear program in return for negotiating spheres of influence across the Middle East. This September, speaking on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York, the current reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed that he was open to direct talks with Washington to end hostilities.
العلاقات المتوترة بين إسرائيل والأردن تمر بمزيد من الاختبار بسبب غزة، لكن من الممكن حدوث تحول
مرت 30 عامًا منذ أن وقعت إسرائيل والأردن معاهدة سلام في 26 أكتوبر 1994. ولكن بدلاً من الاحتفالات، اتسم هذا الذكرى السنوية بخيبة أمل كبيرة وحتى باليأس. يُزعم أن العلاقات بين البلدين وصلت إلى أدنى مستوياتها على الإطلاق، وأن الآفاق المستقبلية تبدو قاتمة، مع استمرار الحرب في غزة وابتعاد السلام بين الإسرائيليين والفلسطينيين أكثر من أي وقت مضى. ومع ذلك، أثبتت العلاقات بين إسرائيل والأردن مرونتها، حتى في مواجهة الأزمة الحالية، ويواصل البلدان تعزيز مصالحهما المشتركة الحيوية.
The multiple wars that have erupted since Oct. 7, 2023, have already changed the strategic landscape in the Middle East — and more change is likely to follow.
How Donald Trump might tackle the Middle East in 2025
it is possible to extrapolate how the incoming second Trump administration may respond to the complex situation in the Middle East by examining the president-elect’s record during his first term, what he has said since, as well as public statements of his running-mate, Sen. J. D. Vance. Two main issues are likely to dominate Donald Trump’s regional agenda when he comes to power: Iran and Israeli-Palestinian affairs.
After Oct. 7, Israeli and Palestinian civil societies’ pro-peace role is more important than ever
The devastating conflict that erupted on Oct. 7, 2023, dealt a near-fatal blow to efforts by Israeli and Palestinian civil society organizations, leaving both sides feeling as though they have returned to square one. The unprecedented violence and severity of the war have profoundly altered the consciousness of both Israelis and Palestinians, reinforcing a sense of existential struggle. Efforts to engage the public must contend with a hardening of positions and sentiment.
