Research & Commentary Results

The scale and brutality of Hamas’s grisly attack on Israel last Saturday has understandably triggered a massive outpouring of sympathy and solidarity with Israel. And yet, there has been no similar outpouring of sympathy for Palestinians, who are now also dying in disturbingly large numbers.

Hamas’ murderous raid on Oct. 7, resulting in the deaths of more than 1,300 Israelis, mostly civilians, may well turn out to be a consequential inflection point, having unleashed political and popular forces that could lead in a positive or, just as likely, extremely negative direction.

تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.

After a year of unprecedented events, Israel’s political and constitutional turmoil came to a head on Sept. 12, when the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a critical case that will determine the future of the Netanyahu government’s judicial overhaul. The arguments concern the so-called Reasonableness Amendment, passed by Israel’s parliament in late July; this amendment to the country’s Basic Laws would partially strip the Supreme Court of its authority to review governmental acts.

Iran has yet to ratify the 2015 Paris Agreement, but efforts to address the impact of climate change have great potential to create opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation, building on the recent trend of regional de-escalation. Climate diplomacy represents an untapped opportunity for Iran to engage globally by incentivizing it to adopt the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals in exchange for sanctions or debt relief.

مع احتفال الموقعين الأصليين على اتفاقيات أبراهام — إسرائيل والإمارات العربية المتحدة والبحرين — بالذكرى السنوية الثالثة لاتفاقهم المبرم في سبتمبر 2020، هناك أساس كافٍ لتقييم ما إذا كانت اتفاقيات أبراهام حقيقية أم مجرد ضجة إعلامية أم شيء بين بين. وكما كان الحال قبل عام، لا تزال النتائج حتى الآن مختلطة.

Thirty years on since its historic signing, the Oslo Accords framework continues to define virtually all aspects of Israeli-Palestinian relations as well as America’s and the broader international community’s approach to the peace process. Yet Oslo’s extraordinary longevity stands not as a testament to its utility but to its unmitigated and ongoing failure.

Pakistan’s intensifying economic, political, and security instability is not good news for China’s strategic investments. So, what are Beijing’s options?

At the start of 2023, optimism was high that China would see a rapid recovery in consumer spending and an acceleration in GDP growth. Since then, however, the world’s second-largest economy has been in the doldrums. China’s ailing economy is a problem not just for China but for the entire world. A prolonged slowdown or a sudden financial crash, were it to occur, would ripple across global markets — including the countries of the Middle East, whose economies have become increasingly intertwined with that of China.

Georgia’s near total reliance on imported Russian wheat forms an extremely dangerous vulnerability that compromises both its food security and sovereignty. Fifteen years after the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, Tbilisi finds itself depending on Russia for over 90 percent of its wheat supply amidst a growing global shortage. In 2022, NATO reiterated its commitment to Georgia, pledging to help build Georgia’s resilience and uphold its political independence.

This study on community leadership and social resilience factors in Moldova in the context of the war in Ukraine is based on in-country interviews with 15 Moldovan experts and community leaders, conducted in May-August 2023.

Russia’s malign behavior in the Black Sea includes piracy, plunder, petroleum price cap violations, and actions to prevent the free transit of foreign commercial and naval vessels. Its largely unchallenged position in the Black Sea also helps Russia maintain access to foreign-made products and components, circumventing sanctions. The West and the broader international community have yet to act to decisively rein in these flagrant violations of international laws and norms.

Last week saw a flurry of diplomatic activity between Baghdad and Ankara. The top priorities in the talks were oil exports, the presence of the PKK in Iraq, and Iraq’s water crisis. The outcomes have been unimpressive, but there is an opportunity for Iraq to shake things up and improve its bargaining position, at least on the oil export issue, possibly more.

In a move of unprecedented geopolitical consequence, the Brics grouping of nations has made the landmark decision to expand beyond its five founding members. Announced on Thursday at the conclusion of the Brics summit in Johannesburg, host South Africa along with Brazil, Russia, India and China invited six nations to join the bloc – Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Argentina.

The recent military coup in Niger marks the point of no return for the unraveling of France’s dominant economic and military influence across West Africa. Turkey is the foreign actor that stands to benefit most, with the potential to emerge as a leading strategic partner for the nations of the region. Turkey’s engagement with West Africa is a unique, dual approach that blends military and economic engagement while deftly intertwining humanitarian aid and cultural outreach.