On Jan. 13, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed alarm that millions of Afghans are on the “verge of death” thanks to a lethal brew of “freezing temperatures and frozen assets.” This was no idle warning. Notwithstanding the decline in fighting following the Taliban’s victory in August 2021, Afghanistan’s economy is in a deepening spiral of impoverishment and destitution.
As the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan grows increasingly dire, Pakistan has informed India that it will allow the transportation of wheat and life-saving medicines from India to Afghanistan through its territory, on the condition that only Afghan trucks are used to carry it. The Taliban regime has praised Pakistan for the move, but will it arrest the decline in India’s fortunes in Afghanistan?
Tajikistan’s evolving relations with the Taliban 2.0
While the international community has adopted a “wait-and-see” attitude toward the Afghan Taliban, Tajikistan has taken a sharply critical view. Rhetoric between Tajikistan and the Taliban is increasingly bitter, a symptom of a broader problem in their bilateral ties. Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon has condemned the Taliban regime in Kabul for failing to form an inclusive government and for violating human rights in the Panjshir Valley. The Taliban have responded by warning Tajikistan not to interfere in Afghanistan’s internal affairs.
Since the hasty American withdrawal from Afghanistan in August, refugees have flowed out of the country and its domestic problems have grown increasingly dire due to the lack of effective governance and much-needed funding. Neighboring countries Iran, Pakistan, and China, along with other regional states and the U.S., now all face a dilemma as to how to stabilize the rapidly deteriorating internal situation. Further efforts must be made to address the growing economic and humanitarian crisis, especially before the onset of winter, although the nature and scope of these efforts are likely to be shaped by the broader competition between Washington and Beijing.
Marvin Weinbaum and Javid Ahmad discuss conditions in Afghanistan since falling back under Taliban rule, including worsening economic and humanitarian crises, the security situation, the role of international and regional actors, and where things might be headed moving forward.
Despite great diplomatic efforts, progress on reaching a comprehensive agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has remained elusive. While these states have long resorted to legal and political means to protect their share of the Nile, the battle over the dam is increasingly playing out in the global theater of public opinion: social media.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Slower may be better
In September, China and Pakistan convened the tenth session of their joint coordination committee that oversees the CPEC — the largest of the BRI corridors. The long-anticipated meeting ultimately yielded no major breakthroughs. The momentum of CPEC appears to be losing steam once again, but for Pakistan, slower may actually be better.
