اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
The crisis in Ukraine, from the perspective of Ankara, carries significant risks, but also some opportunity. It is neither a crisis of their own making, nor one that they welcomed; nevertheless, Ankara has clearly developed a basic blueprint for weathering the storm. From the perspective of Washington policymakers, their strategy is likely to hold more frustration than reassurance.
حتى كتابة هذه السطور، ليس من الواضح ما هو النهج الذي ستتخذه روسيا في أوكرانيا: الضغط، أو التقسيم، أو البلع. يمكن للرئيس فلاديمير بوتين أن يواصل ويُصعّد من سياسة الضغط الشديد على أوكرانيا، دون غزو كبير، الأمر الذي يمكن أن يجعل أوكرانيا تخضع وتستسلم، ويفرض تغييرًا في سياسات كييف أو مساراتها، ويضمن هدف بوتين المتمثل في مواءمة أوكرانيا مع روسيا. أو يمكنه أن يواصل ما بدأه في دونباس وشبه جزيرة القرم وأن يستولى ببساطة على قطعة أخرى من أوكرانيا، مما يزيد الضغط على كل من كييف والغرب. الاحتمال الثالث الواضح هو غزو شامل لابتلاع البلد كله.
تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.
Now, after decades of animosity, Turkey and Armenia are taking steps to normalize ties, and the prospects for restoring relations and reopening the border have never been brighter.
The Black Sea basin has become a flashpoint due to Russia’s interventions in Georgia and Ukraine. This has implications not only for European security, but also for Mediterranean security as well. There are three key areas where the MENA region will be affected by a large-scale confrontation between Russia and Ukraine: energy, agriculture, and refugees.
Brian Katulis and Randa Slim join the program to discuss the Biden administration’s Middle East policy one year in, and look ahead to the challenges it will face in the region in the year ahead.
تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.
On Dec. 13, 2021, at a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting, a draft resolution that would have recognized climate change as a security threat was rejected. The resolution, co-sponsored by Niger and Ireland, would have incorporated climate change as a security risk within the U.N. framework of conflict prevention strategies. What are the potential implications of this and what comes next? We asked seven experts to weigh in with their thoughts.
In a sign of strengthening relations, a long procession of foreign ministers from MENA visited China earlier this month. In addition, two MENA nations signed MoUs involving the BRI, China’s global infrastructure development effort.
As Russia amasses more than 100,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders, the Kremlin is holding the country at gunpoint while imposing outrageous demands on the West. NATO has never attacked Russia, while Moscow has waged wars against Georgia and Ukraine and still occupies their lands and militarizes the Black Sea.
On Jan. 6, 2019, the eve of Orthodox Christmas, the Ecumenical Patriarchate in Istanbul awarded a decree of independence, known as a tomos, to the then-newly established Orthodox Church of Ukraine — a milestone in the country’s history. The move reversed a 1686 decision that had transferred jurisdiction over Kyivan Orthodox churches to Moscow. After 333 years, however, it’s not only the faithful who have changed their direction from Moscow toward Istanbul. Ukraine and Turkey are strengthening their strategic partnership by deepening their cultural, political, military, and economic cooperation.
For months, Ukraine has been a central focus for Western foreign policy as Russia has continued its military buildup on the border, reaching 100,000 troops. Moscow has threatened to carry out a military attack and has now issued an ultimatum for the United States to bless a Russian sphere of influence over sovereign democratic countries such as Ukraine. But as consultations between the U.S. and Russia take place throughout the week, the West should bear in mind that Ukraine is only one part of the broader Russian problem. It is about all independent former Soviet states and essentially about the entire European security architecture. The U.S. and NATO cannot go over the heads of independent states and give into Russian demands; instead, they should buy time and invest in long-term European security, while refraining from rhetoric and ultimatums.
Last week, one day before the European Council, the sixth Eastern Partnership summit took place. For weeks, questions about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine have been asked around the world. But the Eastern Partnership summit declaration, signed by Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, includes no mention of Russia. The Partnership appears hesitant to commit to more security (or integration), perhaps because some members were hoping for a greater European Union commitment to Black Sea security.
