انسحاب الولايات المتحدة والديناميات الأمنية الإقليمية الجديدة في جوار أفغانستان
تشهد الدول المجاورة لأفغانستان عملية إعادة هيكلة جوهرية لنظامها الأمني. وتواصل الدول الإقليمية الرئيسية، وهي باكستان وأفغانستان وإيران والصين، تعديل خططها الدفاعية وشراكاتها الأمنية لمواجهة التهديدات المتزايدة التي يشكلها الإرهاب المحلي والعابر للحدود. وفي الوقت نفسه، تبحث هذه الدول الأربع عن سبل جديدة لملء الفراغ الذي خلفه انسحاب الجيش الأمريكي من أفغانستان في جنوب آسيا.
Return to "maximum pressure": Opportunities and challenges
With the signing of a presidential memorandum on Feb. 4, the administration of Donald Trump has returned to a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, but circumstances have changed drastically since the policy of intensified sanctions was originally crafted during his first term. Regional geopolitics will present the White House with a new set of variables, while changes in the petroleum markets will affect how the administration approaches sanctions on oil exports.
Trump’s diplomatic gambit in the Middle East at one month
This massive distraction of the Trump administration’s Gaza non-plan and the even more serious move of dismantling America’s ability to shape and influence events abroad together carry three risks for the Middle East.
تأثير الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية على تدفقات الطاقة من دول الخليج العربي
بعد مرور ما يقرب من ثلاث سنوات، أدى الغزو الروسي الشامل لأوكرانيا في فبراير 2022 إلى إعادة تشكيل التجارة والاستثمار في قطاع الطاقة، مما أدى إلى زيادة واردات الخليج من النفط الروسي وارتفاع حاد في صادرات المنطقة من الهيدروكربونات إلى أوروبا، فضلاً عن زيادة نمو استثمارات الخليج في مشاريع الطاقة المتجددة الموجودة في القارة والموجهة إليها.
إعادة توازن استراتيجية روسيا في منطقة البحر الأبيض المتوسط: من إظهار القوة إلى التراجع إلى المنطقة الرمادية
سيكون من الصعب للغاية على موسكو الحفاظ على قواعدها العسكرية في سوريا أو إيجاد موقع بديل في البحر الأبيض المتوسط. وجزء من المشكلة في السعي وراء الخيار الأخير، خاصة إذا كان في ليبيا، هو أنه سيتطلب تحولاً كاملاً في نموذج الوجود العسكري الروسي — من قواعد أكثر تقليدية مصممة لفرض الردع من خلال إظهار العلم في المنطقة إلى بناء عملية عسكرية ولوجستية داخل "منطقة رمادية" أمنية.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a potentially disastrous showdown within the next month that could shake his hold on power, unless he manages to deter the strongly held positions of the foreign and domestic politicians and political forces on which he is dependent.
The election of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is a political breakthrough in Lebanon and a harbinger of what could happen in a country long dismissed as unsalvageable. Beirut’s new leadership reflects the aspiration of a majority of the Lebanese people to live in a functioning state free from the dual drivers of its failure: political violence and pervasive corruption. Those leaders must now deliver on their commitment to establish a state committed and accountable to its people and rise to meet the responsibility that comes with holding the promise of a nation’s future.
Normalizing regular contacts and building relationships with the Taliban leadership can offer a more effective way to hold the Islamic Emirate to account for its actions. It also gives greater promise of realizing American hopes for an Afghanistan inhospitable to global terrorists and more respectful of the human rights of its citizens.
A different Middle East: How should Washington respond?
A very different Middle East will greet President-elect Trump this month compared to the region he experienced during his first term. However, there are opportunities to advance American interests for a more stable and less conflictual Middle East, which might not require the kind of intense US commitment we have seen over the last quarter-century.
Saudi Arabia’s diversified support for a two-state solution
More than a year has passed since the horrific attacks that took the lives of 1,200 innocent Israeli citizens on Oct. 7, 2023, a devasting day that led to many more devasting days in Gaza, where tens of thousands of innocent people have died and countless more have experienced suffering on an industrial scale. All hopes that the war might soon wind down are fading, as the conflict has expanded regionally and internationally and attention has been diverted to a hot cease-fire in Lebanon and the dramatic events unfolding in Syria. Saudi Arabia can help support a credible path to peace.
الحفاظ على الأدلة وضمان تحقيق العدالة لجرائم الأسد
Under former President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the Syrian security sector kept meticulous records of their crimes. The international community must now step up to help Syria’s new authorities secure and protect the documents, provide information to the loved ones of those who suffered in Assad’s prisons, and pursue justice.
On Dec. 8, 2024, Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell. This is a fact, but it woefully understates the enormity, speed, and consequences of what has transpired. The brutal dictatorship that ruled Syria for more than 50 years disintegrated in fewer than 10 days. Celebrations erupted across public squares, thousands of Syrian refugees lined up at the borders of Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon eager to return, and the release of political prisoners fueled hope for a new era after decades of despotism and conflict. However, concerns about Syria’s political future and territorial integrity quickly surfaced.
Iran’s growing influence in the Black Sea region: Consequences and Western responses
Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has provided several strategic opportunities for Iran to increase its foothold in the Greater Black Sea Region. A closer analysis of Iran’s deepening footprint there is necessary to inform how the next administration in Washington and the new European Commission can strengthen and better coordinate their policy responses.
In only six days, a broad coalition of advancing opposition forces coordinated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has captured all of Idlib province, almost all of Aleppo province, and a sizeable stretch of northern Hama — a humiliating defeat for Bashar al-Assad and illustrative of the fragility of regime rule in Syria.
